tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post5851528248751681300..comments2024-03-14T09:50:44.315+00:00Comments on Psychological comments: Intelligence lost at 1.23 IQ points per decadeAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-4283387069612729592020-11-25T00:03:14.131+00:002020-11-25T00:03:14.131+00:00Hi there! This is my 1st comment here so I just wa...Hi there! This is my 1st comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I truly enjoy reading through your articles. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same subjects? Thanks a lot!top erection pillshttps://besterectiledysfunctionpills.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-10900110195790729052014-12-05T13:34:55.917+00:002014-12-05T13:34:55.917+00:00O/T --I had the impression that the Flynn effect s...O/T --I had the impression that the Flynn effect showed up principally on the matrix tests, which are seldom seen in the US.....pyrrhushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06150605108788285274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-80871596199445309332014-12-05T13:27:26.345+00:002014-12-05T13:27:26.345+00:00I just looked at the 2012 NAEP, which finds progre...I just looked at the 2012 NAEP, which finds progress both absolute and in closing racial "gaps" since 1971 except at the 17 year old level, where it finds stasis. No one actually familiar with school children believes any of that, but it would be impolitic to say so.<br />I would point out that the SAT (and I assume the ACT) is a high security, proctored exam.SAT Exams have been cancelled recently in Korea because of security leaks. The NAEP is administered locally. School districts in every large city in the USA have been caught systematically enhancing the scores of <br />their students, especially minority students. If scores get too low in the US, the district may be taken over and/or administrators lose their jobs.There are criminal charges pending against administrators and teachers in Atlanta for wholesale alteration of test booklets. In sum, the NAEP data has to be regarded as systematically corrupt.(I strongly suspect that these tests have also been dumbed down, but don't have any data) If these tests were administered by a neutral third party like the SAT College Board, they would show the same, or more probably a worse decline than the SAT itself. <br />Many college teachers have commented on the declining quality of incoming students and their preparation, which corroborates these facts.pyrrhushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06150605108788285274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-1196618174852152252014-12-04T23:02:34.141+00:002014-12-04T23:02:34.141+00:00More questions:
-If mutation rate per generation ...More questions:<br /><br />-If mutation rate per generation = 2 * Paternal age, and a generation can be treated as the paternal age for mutations given the paternal bias, isn't the mutation rate just 2/yr, regardless of paternal age pattern?<br /><br />-Isn't there evidence the mutation rate is considerably lower ?<br />(dienekes.blogspot.com/2014/09/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know.html)<br /><br />Thanks!Taymashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06665325852062369303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-85317393791532312122014-12-04T21:28:18.530+00:002014-12-04T21:28:18.530+00:00Pre-modern, within the Hajnal Line, paternal age e...Pre-modern, within the Hajnal Line, paternal age effect must have been similar yet we can assume mutational load was negative across generations, correct? Yet much of the culling was environmental (my understanding is that communicable disease must have a large non-shared-environment component), and much selection on hereditary traits may have been on traits with little demonstrated or intuitive relation to load, eg conscientiousness or novel-disease-resistance (probably related via general immune strength but only weakly). So I'm not sold on the Woodley/Charlton model positing huge differences between the pre-modern and modern selection effects limiting load accumulation, because I don't see how the pre-modern could have acted particularly strongly against load to begin with. I'm clearly missing something.<br /><br />I'm not fully convinced on the SRT study, either, so the confluence doesn't hold weight yet (esp given the confidence interval on b). Dividing the stdev change in SRT by SRT's g-loading means you're assuming mono-causality, which is yet unproven, no? What about testosterone or physical fitness? I told a neuro-optometry researcher about the SRT study and she was skeptical, something to do with a modern dearth of peripheral vision stimuli; I've yet to follow-up because I'm deficient in follow-up quotient (wink on the acronym). I should note that my prior is actually fully in agreement with a post-Victorian IQ decline; if I'm misunderstanding something I apologize.<br /><br />Fascinating topic and I'm glad such sharp minds on working on it, thank you!Taymashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06665325852062369303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-26791506410582534482014-12-03T19:27:05.571+00:002014-12-03T19:27:05.571+00:00Interesting. Then, where have the intelligence tes...Interesting. Then, where have the intelligence test constructors messed up: normative samples, pass rates, errors in scaled score calculations or what? Rindermann and I assumed there had been some NAEP changes showing Flynn effects. What is your take on that?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-88725618175523235852014-12-03T16:31:51.146+00:002014-12-03T16:31:51.146+00:00That's "renorming", despite the idio...That's "renorming", despite the idiot computer program.pyrrhushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06150605108788285274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-64472558636285508032014-12-03T14:59:25.744+00:002014-12-03T14:59:25.744+00:00I would add that if there is a Flynn effect in the...I would add that if there is a Flynn effect in the US, it has not been visible in the results of more than 50 years of standardized testing of school children.pyrrhushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06150605108788285274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-77436391204610392692014-12-03T14:57:14.552+00:002014-12-03T14:57:14.552+00:00Yes, you have to take the reforming into account, ...Yes, you have to take the reforming into account, but I didn't attempt to quantify more subtle dumbings down of the test, such as a little easier math questions, so my estimate is on the conservative side.pyrrhushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06150605108788285274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-3393756377050234132014-12-02T05:26:00.313+00:002014-12-02T05:26:00.313+00:00Nyborg's estimate is way too pessimistic. His ...Nyborg's estimate is way too pessimistic. His model is assuming that their fertility rates do not change once they reach Denmark, but they do. The second generation has very similar fertility to the natives.Emil OW Kirkegaardhttp://emilkirkegaard.dknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-59397296731622764862014-12-01T22:03:22.514+00:002014-12-01T22:03:22.514+00:00is that allowing for any re-norming or significant...is that allowing for any re-norming or significant changes in pass rates?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-84471298616632013252014-12-01T19:44:49.460+00:002014-12-01T19:44:49.460+00:00Strangely, that's almost exactly the decline r...Strangely, that's almost exactly the decline rate I have found by analyzing 5 decades of declining SAT scores in the US, about 1.2 points per decade....pyrrhushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06150605108788285274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-48413701776862757722014-12-01T16:33:18.825+00:002014-12-01T16:33:18.825+00:00Quote: "I do think that Woodley tends to jump...Quote: "I do think that Woodley tends to jump the gun and fiddle with statistics to exaggerate effect sizes"<br /><br />This is actually quite a serious accusation, one that can easily be disproved in the context of the present study. Look at the corrections applied to each study in the meta-analysis. One of the corrections involved imposing a uniform conservative generational length across studies of 3.5 decades, which reduces the expected decadal loss when compared with estimates based on the assumption of shorter generational lengths. Another major correction involved reducing the magnitudes of three of the estimates by nearly 50% in order to correct for the method variance between IQ*sibship and IQ*completed fertility correlations. These corrections cumulatively penalized the decline estimates quite substantially in some cases.<br /><br />Had it been my intention to bias the estimates upwards, I might have contrived a rationale for adjusting the six studies employing IQ*completed fertility correlations upwards by 50%. I might also have decided on a shorter generational length (such as 25 years). Bias implies consistency.<br /><br />That, taken as a whole, my five error corrections were meta-analytically sound is evidenced by the massive reduction in between-study heterogeneity when the 'before' and 'after' estimates are compared.<br /><br />The losses due to mutation-accumulation are based on real estimates of the paternal age effect on offspring g, when both parental g and educational level are controlled using structural equation models (from Arslan et al. 2014) and also real estimates of the paternal age effect on offspring mutation load (from Kong et al. 2012).<br /><br />Of course the magnitudes of these parameters are open to debate, hence my explicit description of the estimates as 'crude', coupled with my use of the 95% CI from the paternal age effect in bounding the aggregate decline estimate. However, this is something on which future meta-analytic studies can shed more light.<br /> <br />At the end of the day I cannot help it if my effect sizes are bigger than some people would like. For what it is worth I did not set out to show that the decline estimates converged with those estimated on the basis of the SRT anti-Flynn effect data. That they do however is nonetheless suggestive of the convergent and nomological validity of the >1 point per decade loss claim however.<br /><br />The onus is now on the sceptics to show, via reanalysis of existing data or via analysis of new data that the effect sizes have been overestimated. Allegations of 'gun jumping' and 'bias' in my findings are however inappropriate. <br /><br />Michael A. Woodley of Menienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-69324254539464532172014-12-01T09:13:49.056+00:002014-12-01T09:13:49.056+00:00Dear Mark, As you say at the end, a number gives u...Dear Mark, As you say at the end, a number gives us something to argue about, and to refine our measures. It is relatively small when compared to the Flynn Effect, which is still continuing in many countries, but it may be more insidious.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-23530296332548885692014-12-01T05:04:18.538+00:002014-12-01T05:04:18.538+00:00Thanks for this, James. I was just recently wonder...Thanks for this, James. I was just recently wondering about the problem of random mutation, which almost always exerts a deleterious effect on any trait in question. Even to tread water, it's necessary for there to be at least some small balancing selection.<br /><br />I do think that Woodley tends to jump the gun and fiddle with statistics to exaggerate effect sizes, and I'd be surprised to know that the rate of loss due to mutation was as high as he claimed. Still, a number is better than no number, and taken as an upper bound, it's quite instructive.Mark Graybillhttp://awesomescience.us/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-82262925304543147442014-11-30T18:17:04.595+00:002014-11-30T18:17:04.595+00:00The effect of increasing paternal age is complex:
...The effect of increasing paternal age is complex:<br />Let's say for example, that there is 30 new mutations in father line for each 20 years and 0 mutations in mother line. If we define the mutation load at time T0, generation G0 zero, then at time T+40 woman has a choice for father of her child - either 40 year old man of generation G0 (having on average 60 new point mutations), or 20 year old man of generation G1 (having on average 30 new point mutations). But generation G1 on average already has higher mutation load compared to G0 (about 30).<br />The main benefit of younger fathers to population comes from the fact that the phenotype of younger man is better proxy of the genotype of his sperm (differing only by 30 mutations, compared to 60 for older man). Thus the selection (either sexual or environmental) operates with better accuracy.<br />On the other hand the effect of several detrimental mutations may only appear at later age. This may make choosing older fathers evolutionarily advantageous strategy - and indeed in many mammals females prefer older males.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01914659499851183442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-73701661251269664202014-11-30T15:30:51.666+00:002014-11-30T15:30:51.666+00:00Yes, Woodley covers this in his last paragraph, bu...Yes, Woodley covers this in his last paragraph, but I dropped that because it is the importation of another population, so a different though bigger effect.<br /><br />Finally, it must be noted that the decline estimate generated<br />here likely underestimates the actual decline in g at the population<br />level in modern Western countries, as there will be an additional<br />contribution stemming from the process of replacement migration<br />(Coleman, 2002) involving immigrant groups sourced from populations<br />exhibiting lower average levels of g and higher rates of total<br />fertility. Nyborg (2012) estimates that in Denmark, replacement<br />migration may be reducing IQ by .29 points per decade (this corresponds<br />to a heritable g decline of .28 points). Assuming parallel<br />trends in the US and UK, this would entail a further increase in<br />the decadal decline to 1.51 points per decade.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-80616872119428688022014-11-30T14:47:52.388+00:002014-11-30T14:47:52.388+00:00In the final paragraph Woodley comments:
Finally,...In the final paragraph Woodley comments:<br /><br /><i>Finally, it must be noted that the decline estimate generated here likely underestimates the actual decline in g at the population level in modern Western countries, as there will be an additional contribution stemming from the process of replacement migration (Coleman, 2002) involving immigrant groups sourced from populations exhibiting lower average levels of g and higher rates of total fertility. Nyborg (2012) estimates that in Denmark, replacement migration may be reducing IQ by .29 points per decade (this corresponds to a heritable g decline of .28 points). Assuming parallel trends in the US and UK, this would entail a further increase in the decadal decline to 1.51 points per decade.</i><br /><br />B.B.B.B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00579154174541195967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-11851336908991107142014-11-30T13:53:49.862+00:002014-11-30T13:53:49.862+00:00Is he controlling for that big demographic change ...Is he controlling for that big demographic change in the West that we don't talk about? Gordonoreply@blogger.com