tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post6780107248466190885..comments2024-03-14T09:50:44.315+00:00Comments on Psychological comments: Brexit predictionsAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-50534855211977140812017-06-04T02:25:45.579+01:002017-06-04T02:25:45.579+01:00The best facts about Clixsense's GPT Click Pro...The <b>best</b> facts about <b><a href="http://gptc.syntaxlinks.com/r/Clixsense" rel="nofollow">Clixsense</a></b>'s GPT Click Program:<br />1. Up to <b>$0.02</b>/click.<br />2. <b>5 seconds</b> lowest timer.<br />3. Re-click every <b>24 hours</b>.Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07287821785570247118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-46340736075345146222016-06-27T00:50:23.467+01:002016-06-27T00:50:23.467+01:00"The final YouGov survey for The Times, which..."The final YouGov survey for The Times, which quizzed a massive 3,766 people online..."<br /><br />Add a sampling frame with built-in selection bias, and a sample size of 10,000 would have likely given a misleading result.<br /><br />And of course, none of the experts have drafted a Plan B(rexit), so they're going be whingeing about Xenophobic Low Information Voters at least through Christmas. This Texan says thanks, England (and Wales)! This is much more fun than watching BBC dramas on our local Public Broadcast Stations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-3004402880568699082016-06-26T22:40:00.776+01:002016-06-26T22:40:00.776+01:00Seems a familiar story, as experienced by IrelandSeems a familiar story, as experienced by IrelandAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-4384616441299812002016-06-26T22:37:16.737+01:002016-06-26T22:37:16.737+01:00The validity of a recommendation is inversely prop...The validity of a recommendation is inversely proportional to the number of people signing the letter.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-85909124099707222282016-06-26T21:24:47.569+01:002016-06-26T21:24:47.569+01:00Also multiple subjective factors in polls. How to ...Also multiple subjective factors in polls. How to predict voting behaviour (tithing to vote) etc.<br /><br />Usually pollsters use earlier elections to calibrate the endless decisions involved. With a once off vote they have no prior data to work with. Hence, bad quality.Jazi Zilberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05905089558096276638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-77392633958806842452016-06-26T21:24:37.549+01:002016-06-26T21:24:37.549+01:00Also multiple subjective factors in polls. How to ...Also multiple subjective factors in polls. How to predict voting behaviour (tithing to vote) etc.<br /><br />Usually pollsters use earlier elections to calibrate the endless decisions involved. With a once off vote they have no prior data to work with. Hence, bad quality.Jazi Zilberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05905089558096276638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-72444050052303100382016-06-26T21:12:32.559+01:002016-06-26T21:12:32.559+01:00I worked in counterparty credit risk for 20 years....I worked in counterparty credit risk for 20 years. All the mainstream economists are wrong in predicting black swan events, those who call them correctly are outsiders or mavericks. You get to sit at the big table by telling people what they want to hear, not by being right. <br /><br />Await the failures of several major European banks before you cast judgement, I give it less than ten years.Wolfiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05820269114208456064noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-2852636415733061252016-06-26T19:32:20.756+01:002016-06-26T19:32:20.756+01:00The negotiations will be so difficult and the term...The negotiations will be so difficult and the terms so unpalatable that they will be put to a second referendum and rejected. Then we will be sent to bed with a smack and told never to do that again.Marshall Colmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00293970978200882404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-71987084606563646092016-06-26T18:53:42.790+01:002016-06-26T18:53:42.790+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Marshall Colmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00293970978200882404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-46903290675687326302016-06-26T18:26:30.460+01:002016-06-26T18:26:30.460+01:00"Expert opinion was almost uniformly in favou..."Expert opinion was almost uniformly in favour of Remain. The scientific community was particularly strong for Remain": but the scientists weren't speaking as experts, but rather as a vested interest. As a rule, one scientist speaking in public might be talking about science, but anything said by many scientists just translates as "Give us your money!"<br /><br />As for economists, in what are they expert? Macroeconomics has less predictive value than water-divining. As Her Majesty asked of the financial crisis "How come nobody saw it coming?" <br /><br />It was Keynes (an economist but nonetheless a very clever chap) who had the ambition that economists would eventually become as competent as dentists. We're still waiting, Maynard.deariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-63710169342147382922016-06-26T16:27:55.520+01:002016-06-26T16:27:55.520+01:00Ah, back to normal! Just think how literature will...Ah, back to normal! Just think how literature will flourish.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-50186234096428662952016-06-26T16:25:01.715+01:002016-06-26T16:25:01.715+01:00In five years, I fully expect the English to be re...In five years, I fully expect the English to be reduced to a level close to that of the middle ages. Commerce will be done in gold coin. Travel will by horse. Football will be replaced by jousts. The plague will ravage major cities.<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10664422289517776352noreply@blogger.com