tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46245866302991653352024-03-14T09:50:44.377+00:00Psychological commentsIntelligence, differences, explanations, and other perplexing mattersAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.comBlogger748125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-72872479615945735982016-12-15T16:22:00.001+00:002016-12-15T16:22:06.967+00:00Goodbye<p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gAlAYzSCPDk/WFLDJERWabI/AAAAAAAAC04/3sXBeX_nyhw/s1600-h/Snapshot%252520corrected%252520moving%252520to%252520unz%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Snapshot corrected moving to unz" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Snapshot corrected moving to unz" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-sN11mYRu9Ak/WFLDJ8bA2EI/AAAAAAAAC08/b8UuE52PaLQ/Snapshot%252520corrected%252520moving%252520to%252520unz_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="169"></a></p> <p><font size="2"></font> <p><font size="2">It’s goodbye to drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk </font><font size="2"></font> <p><font size="2">After 4 years of blogging, and 1,062,720 page views, here is a “change of address” notification. </font><font size="2">I have decided to transmute into being a columnist, at the kind invitation of Ron Unz, so as to write my psychological comments as a column at: </font> <p><font size="2">http://www.unz.com/jthompson</font> <p><font size="2">I am happy at the prospect of more visibility, more technical backup, and a more accessible and searchable archive of work. You can search by topic and by date, and I will start adding tags so that all searches become easier and more powerful. I hope to get more readers, given that the site gets 2 million a month, shared between many writers. Whether, in this collective of authors, I will still be able to stare at a page and immediately start writing, without knowing where it is going, as I do now in the apparent wilderness and seclusion of my own blog, is an open question. </font> <p><font size="2">Will I experience a crushing writer’s block, the equivalent of entering a sterile business office in order to dream up, to command, a romantic novel, and find that the fluorescent lights and lunchtime canteen deadens my soul? Will I look over my shoulder at what others are writing? Or will I just close my eyes and imagine a single reader in the wilderness, and write for that one person, regardless of all else?</font> <p><font size="2">Perhaps I have been over-dramatic, but shifting from my familiar abode causes a certain emotional wrench. It is like walking the empty rooms of a family house while the removal van waits outside. Worse, what if you, dear reader, resolutely refuse to follow me? Will you be set in your ways, a slave to your favourite sites, unwilling to countenance a perturbation in your URLS?</font> <p><font size="2">I hope you can shift as I intend to shift, to a new meeting place. The medium is not the message: the medium is what carries the message, and a message only brings you news if the content is hard to guess. We need to talk of many things, of shoes and ships and sealing wax and Shannon’s Mathematical Theory of Communication. I digress, but only a bit.</font> <p><font size="2">http://www.unz.com/jthompson</font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-70018449785670796882016-12-12T14:06:00.001+00:002016-12-12T14:06:11.760+00:00Africa and the cold beauty of Maths<p> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-r6SVY-dU50U/WE6uy0rWtjI/AAAAAAAAC0Y/4gA1BmAXEYw/s1600-h/Africa%252520TIMMS%252520equipercentile%25255B5%25255D.png"><img title="Africa TIMMS equipercentile" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Africa TIMMS equipercentile" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-68-a3WZj-8A/WE6u0n_1WbI/AAAAAAAAC0c/_a_Y3rDU75U/Africa%252520TIMMS%252520equipercentile_thumb%25255B3%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="430" height="772"></a></p> <p><font size="2">Things m</font><font size="2">ove fast. A published paper comes to the attention of Steve Sailer and suddenly a section of a puzzle gets completed. </font></p> <p><a title="http://www.unz.com/isteve/school-test-scores-in-africa/" href="http://www.unz.com/isteve/school-test-scores-in-africa/"><font size="2">http://www.unz.com/isteve/school-test-scores-in-africa/</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">Better still, the boundaries of ignorance get pushed backwards, which is always a good idea, and a fine Christmas present.</font></p> <p><font size="2">From the isolation of my study, and from the depths of my ignorance, I had always bemoaned the fact that poorer countries, particularly in Africa, avoided taking part in PISA and similar international assessments. The suspicion was that they were avoiding getting bad results, which would redound on their national pride, showing them to be dull and/or incapable of organising their schools properly. PISA has the capacity to spread embarrassment far and wide, in rich as well as poor countries, and I am all in favour of that. Let the over-paid educational authorities of the rich world be confounded by the wit of poorer nations, and may their cosy empires fall. Also, may badly organized countries stop blaming poverty and make sure they pay and support their teachers.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The problem with the lack of participation of these countries was that researchers lost a possible confirmation or disconfirmation of the IQ results obtained on those countries, which in the case of Africa seem to be too low to be believed. How to sort out this problem?</font></p> <p><font size="2">Justin Sandefur, Working Paper 444, December 2016, Center for Global Development.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Internationally Comparable Mathematics Scores for Fourteen African Countries</font> <p><font size="2"><em>Abstract</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Internationally comparable test scores play a central role in both research and policy debates on education. However, the main international testing regimes, such as PISA, TIMSS, or PIRLS, include very few low-income countries. For instance, most countries in Southern and Eastern Africa have opted instead for a regional assessment known as SACMEQ. This paper exploits an overlap between the SACMEQ and TIMSS tests—in both country coverage, and questions asked— to assesses the feasibility of constructing global learning metrics by equating regional and international scales. I compare three different equating methods and find that learning levels in this sample of African countries are consistently (a) low in absolute terms, with average pupils scoring below the fifth percentile for most developed economies; (b) significantly lower than predicted by African per capita GDP levels; and (c) converging slowly, if at all, to the rest of the world during the 2000s. While these broad patterns are robust, average performance in individual countries is quite sensitive to the method chosen to link scores. Creating test scores which are truly internationally comparable would be a global public good, requiring more concerted effort at the design stage.</em></font> <p><a title="http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/math-scores-fourteen-african-countries0.pdf" href="http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/math-scores-fourteen-african-countries0.pdf"><font size="2">http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/math-scores-fourteen-african-countries0.pdf</font></a> <p><font size="2">This fine paper comes from the economic sphere of study, so does not reference much psychometric literature. A pity, because it contributes much to the debate on group differences. Economists often ignore the concept of intelligence. Sandefur also seems to accept African national economic statistics, though he probably realizes they are prone to wishful thinking. The author is circumspect about the key issue of comparability of difficulty levels across tests, but seems to have made reasonable choices. I doubt that a re-working would change the picture very much.</font> <p><font size="2">The linkage is made possible by Botswana and South Africa having taken both the regional SACMEQ and the TIMSS international tests; and the 2000 and 2007 regional tests having used some of the TIMSS international test questions.</font> <p><font size="2">Whatever the linkage methods, the results are pretty grim: </font> <p><em><font size="2">Substantively, the results here are daunting for African education systems. Most of the national test-score averages I estimate for the thirteen African countries in my sample fall more than two standard deviations below the TIMSS average, which places them below the 5th percentile in most European, North American, and East Asian countries. In contrast, scores from the SACMEQ test administered to math teachers are much higher, but fall only modestly above the TIMSS sample average for seventh- and eighth-grade pupils, in line with earlier analysis by Spaull and van der Berg (2013). African test scores appear low relative to national GDP levels; in a regression of average scores on per capita GDP in PPP terms, average scores in the SACMEQ sample are significantly below the predicted value using all three linking methodologies. Furthermore, there is little sign that African scores were improving rapidly or converging to OECD levels during the 2000s.</font></em> <p><font size="2">Of course, readers of this blog will know that Richard Lynn’s personal collection of international intelligence test results, now in the Becker edition, puts Sub Saharan intelligence two standard deviations below the European mean, so it closely matches these results. </font> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/richard-lynn-intelligence-database.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/richard-lynn-intelligence-database.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/richard-lynn-intelligence-database.html</font></a> <p><font size="2">The advantage of using Maths tests as a proxy for intelligence tests is that most intelligence tests have an Arithmetic subtest and/or number series tests, so one can follow some known correlations to estimate comparability's. Better still, Maths has a logic to it, so it is valid to talk about some operations being more complex than others. The same item is very much the same item whichever test you find it in, because the same steps are required to solve it. It has the cold beauty of which Bertrand Russell spoke:</font> <p><em><font size="2">“Mathematics, rightly viewed, possesses not only truth, but supreme beauty — a beauty cold and austere, like that of </font></em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sculpture"><em><font color="#000000" size="2">sculpture</font></em></a><em><font size="2">, without appeal to any part of our weaker nature, without the gorgeous trappings of painting or music, yet sublimely pure, and capable of a stern perfection such as only the greatest art can show. The true spirit of delight, the exaltation, the sense of being more than Man, which is the touchstone of the highest excellence, is to be found in mathematics as surely as poetry”.</font></em> <p><font size="2">More prosaically, maths opens the door to many other intellectual tasks, much as literacy supersedes the oral tradition.</font> <p><font size="2">What is to be done with African Maths teachers? Heiner Rindermann, trying to resolve the debate between Richard Lynn and Jelte Wicherts, put Sub-Saharan African IQ at 76. As to African Maths teachers’ results in this paper, he says: </font><font size="2"><em>In some African countries teachers seem to have lower abilities than students in Europe or East-Asia!</em> </font> <p><font size="2">If teachers are one standard deviation above the national mean, then they would have IQs of 91, if two standard deviations above the mean still only 106. This is not a level likely to inculcate in their students a passion for Maths, a subject which every schoolchild recognizes as being different conceptually from other language based subjects, and hard to master. What makes problems difficult? I digress. </font> <p><font size="2">Convergence is a much desired trajectory where racial differences are concerned. Put in the educational resources and the slower countries will catch up with the faster ones. Makes sense. However, this sought-after outcome does not always materialize. Convergence will take place sometime between 40 years and never, according to Woodley and Meisenberg.</font> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/original-paper-are-cognitive.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/original-paper-are-cognitive.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/original-paper-are-cognitive.html</font></a> <p><font size="2">Turning to the pressing issue of how to raise scholastic attainments, it is unlikely to be a simple question of investing money. Saudi Arabia has had plenty of money to spend on education for almost 50 years, and just look where it languishes in the table, in the company of far less wealthy Swaziland, Tanzania, Botswana and Uganda. Of course, given Saudi Arabia’s mean IQ of 78 that would be entirely as expected. No Africanist, I have nonetheless sung the praises of Botswana, a well run country which invests heavily in education (the Diamond Generation). Despite that, Botswana is not getting much bang for its buck. If Botswana cannot converge on other nations, despite having done so many things right, that should give pause for thought. Botswana’s mean IQ 73.</font> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/the-wages-of-mandela.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/the-wages-of-mandela.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/the-wages-of-mandela.html</font></a> <p><font size="2">A summary of investment in education suggests that the pay-off is front-end loaded: the first $5000 has a big effect, and then it tends to plateau thereafter. Another way of looking at it is to note that once countries get to $16,000 GDP per capita then schooling in those countries accounts for only 10% of the variance of student attainment. So, poor countries (most of Africa is well below this level) should have plenty of scope for educational gains.</font> <p><font size="2">This paper completes a jigsaw puzzle, and extends the global scholastic attainment dataset by 14 countries. It confirms the Lynn assessments as likely to be correct, within a measurement error of roughly 4 IQ points. For these countries at least, it gives no hint of exceptional talents beyond that expected on the basis of intelligence testing.</font> <p><font size="2">I don’t do policy, so this is said more in hope than with any expectation of a good result, but if young Europeans school-leavers with good maths qualifications intending to do good works in Africa want to be most effective, instead of digging ditches they should concentrate on teaching Maths.</font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com31tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-6118927632764072632016-12-08T20:07:00.001+00:002016-12-08T20:07:24.181+00:00Der tag<p> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-IcgJVSVNXgg/WEm9eDZmhoI/AAAAAAAACzw/O5KkJUwbH_A/s1600-h/Daily%252520total%2525205018%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Daily total 5018" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Daily total 5018" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-T7fCZt1vztw/WEm9etKXdVI/AAAAAAAACz0/O5CJHpNb7h0/Daily%252520total%2525205018_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="154"></a></p> <p><font size="2">Thank you to the 5018 readers who looked in on “Psychological Comments” yesterday.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Why? </font></p> <p><font size="2">Not complaining, just curious.</font></p> <p><font size="2">For the previous highest daily total see: </font></p> <p><font size="2"><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/der-tag.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/der-tag.html">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/der-tag.html</a></font></p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-60980548981214014362016-12-07T13:44:00.001+00:002016-12-07T13:44:20.725+00:00Faking good on PISA<p> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-GcQzXuiFj1k/WEgSMOnvFtI/AAAAAAAACzY/yEYRbKKwDAY/s1600-h/Faking%252520good%252520on%252520PISA%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img title="Faking good on PISA" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Faking good on PISA" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-GrP15CabxMI/WEgSM9C9jwI/AAAAAAAACzc/ozYkBSQ37dQ/Faking%252520good%252520on%252520PISA_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="644" height="461"></a></p> <p> </p> <p><font size="2">One of the delights of being a member of a community of researchers in the modern age is the speed with which colleagues can come together to answer a question and scope out a solution to a problem.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Steve Sailer has looked at the most recent PISA results, which he has been discussing generically for many years. </font></p> <p><a title="http://www.unz.com/isteve/new-pisa-test-results/" href="http://www.unz.com/isteve/new-pisa-test-results/"><font size="2">http://www.unz.com/isteve/new-pisa-test-results/</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">He pointed out that in some countries a large proportion of eligible children don’t show up in the statistics. Could it possibly be the case that they are discretely told to stay at home, because national pride is at stake? Perish the thought! He pointed out that Argentina had apparently made stellar gains, but a commentator on his blog pointed out later that there was so much cheating in the Argentine provinces that the results had to be discarded, and the declared results are for Buenos Aires only, so probably higher than the national figures, or so the </font><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?espv=2&biw=1422&bih=657&q=en+castellano+porte%C3%B1o&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwitqN-88OHQAhWJCMAKHUk3BjEQ7xYIGCgA"><i><font color="#000000" size="2">porteño</font></i></a><font color="#000000" size="2">s </font><font size="2">would have you believe. Incidentally, it is only recently that Argentina has had economic data, such as for inflation, that could be vaguely trusted, so they are only just in the Truth Recovery phase.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Cheating is the easiest way to boost results. Teachers can look at the questions some days before the test, and do a crash course in “revision” for the class. This makes teachers, children, parents and governments happy. PISA says it has methods to ensure security and detect cheating, but Heiner Rindermann also has his own ability to look carefully at PISA’s published results, and rejects some of them on the grounds of improbability.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Anatoly Karlin also had a look at the dataset and discussed the disappointing performance of China and other eastern countries, with Russia doing better. Get his full account here:</font></p> <p><a title="http://www.unz.com/akarlin/pisa-2015/" href="http://www.unz.com/akarlin/pisa-2015/"><font size="2">http://www.unz.com/akarlin/pisa-2015/</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">I wondered how big the effect of such selective non-attendance on the examinations might be. There is also the confounder that age at ending secondary education varies between one country and another, so that must be factored into the equation. </font></p> <p><font size="2"><font size="2">Emil Kirkegaard suggested an approach, and after discussions with me and Gerhard Meisenberg, </font>sorted it out quickly. Have a look at the full process here:</font></p> <p><a title="http://rpubs.com/EmilOWK/233323" href="http://rpubs.com/EmilOWK/233323"><font size="2">http://rpubs.com/EmilOWK/233323</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">Emil had also asked Heiner Rindermann to comment, and he came in a few minutes later, with a detailed publication (not yet published, so I cannot show it to you) and a rule of thumb adjustment you can apply to all the countries.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Heiner says: </font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>School attendance rate of 15 year old youth (usually, but not always, given in PISA reports, usually somewhere at the end).<br>Do not confuse with participation rate in PISA study.<br></em></font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>P</em></font><font size="2"><em>er each percent point not attending school subtract 1.5 SASQ points (equivalent 0.225 IQ points). That is a rule of thumb.</em></font></p> <p><br><font size="2"><em>I have made a smaller correction for countries at low ability levels - in such countries pupils in school do not learn much.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">Not bad for a few hours of internet time. </font></p> <p><font size="2">A few hours later, Steve Sailer had further and better particulars on the results:</font></p> <p><a title="http://www.unz.com/isteve/2015-pisa-mean-scores-in-perspective/" href="http://www.unz.com/isteve/2015-pisa-mean-scores-in-perspective/"><font size="2">http://www.unz.com/isteve/2015-pisa-mean-scores-in-perspective/</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">So, where does this leave us with the PISA results? First, it gives me a chance to quote myself, one of the consolations of a lonely blogger: “Nobody gets round sampling theory, not even the Spanish Inquisition.” </font></p> <p><font size="2">Second, and arising from the quote, the consequence is that the PISA results are only generalizable if the sample is a fair selection of the relevant group. In my view, to understand the abilities of a nation, the relevant group should be the entire age cohort. If many 15 year olds have already left school then a school sample will always be a partial indicator of a nation, and will very probably flatter it. This is because weaker students find school frustrating and leave, whereas the brighter ones enjoy studying, understand its long term benefits, and stay in education as long as they can. Further, if teachers ensure that even among those still staying at school the weaker students fall discretely ill on the day of testing, then the results can be massaged upwards. Spotting weaker students is easy for teachers: they can quickly determine it from student questions, and more accurately determine it by marking their class test papers.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Third, I do not want to reject PISA results, because local examination results share many of the same problems. In any nation where some teenagers leave school early the local examination results will be better than the actual national average. Equally, if within a school cohort not everyone takes the same national examination, the same flattering distortion takes place.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Fourth and finally, I think it best to study PISA results once they have been corrected to account for incomplete age cohorts in the Rindermann fashion, or in some elaboration and refinement of that technique. Absent that, they have a large error term and present too rosy a picture of national scholastic attainments.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-88873294157590095782016-12-01T15:43:00.001+00:002016-12-05T23:04:31.131+00:00Does Age make us sage or sag?<p> </p> <p><font size="2">If you are of sensitive disposition, and certainly if you are over 60 years of age, look away now. Age is not good news for the thinking person. The results can be summarised in one word: decline. If you protest that I have been too brief, I can triple the word count: decline and fall.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Can we find more appealing results by taking another large sample, and applying more extensive measures of mental ability?</font></p> <p><font size="2">Elise Whitley, Ian J. Deary, Stuart J.Ritchie, G. David Batty, Meena Kumari, Michaela Benzeval. Variations in cognitive abilities across the life course: Cross-sectional evidence from Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal </font> <p><a title="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZSWNNczFpclo4UWs/view?usp=sharing" href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZSWNNczFpclo4UWs/view?usp=sharing"><font size="2">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZSWNNczFpclo4UWs/view?usp=sharing</font></a> <p><font size="2"><em>Background: Populations worldwide are aging. Cognitive decline is an important precursor of dementia, illness and death and, even within the normal range, is associated with poorer performance on everyday tasks. However, the impact of age on cognitive function does not always receive the attention it deserves.</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Methods:</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>We have explored cross-sectional associations of age with five cognitive tests (word recall, verbal fluency, subtraction, number sequence, and numerical problem solving) in a large representative sample of over 40,000 men and women aged 16 to 100 living in the UK.</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Results:</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Women performed better on word recall tests and men had higher scores for subtraction, number sequence and numerical problem solving. However, age-cognition associations were generally similar in both genders. Mean word recall and number sequence scores decreased from early adulthood with steeper declines from the mid-60s onwards Verbal fluency, subtraction and numerical problem solving scores remained stable or increased from early to mid-adulthood, followed by approximately linear declines from around age 60. Performance on all tests was progressively lower in respondents with increasingly worse self-rated health and memory. Age-related declines in word recall, verbal fluency and number sequence started earlier in those with the worst self-rated health. There was no compelling evidence for age dedifferentiation (that the general factor of cognitive ability changes in strength with age).</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Conclusions:</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>We have confirmed previously observed patterns of cognitive aging</em></font> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qrsIXJ0TTb0/WEBFAYFCDuI/AAAAAAAACyo/1fMfQxo7uv4/s1600-h/Age%252520and%252520ability%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Age and ability" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Age and ability" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yyPRiKPDdCM/WEBFBEKJOnI/AAAAAAAACys/GwBbcbMHUCc/Age%252520and%252520ability_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="459"></a> <p> <p><font size="2">Sharp declines for word recall, verbal fluency and number sequences; declines after 60 years of age for numerical problem solving, and even some gradual decline on subtraction. Ironic, is it not, that after the subtraction of all our skills, subtraction itself should be spared?</font></p> <p><font size="2">Somewhat chastened by these findings, I turned to another paper in the hope it would cheer me up. Written by the same incredible Edinburgh gang, who have cornered the market in ageing research, they try to find what makes people age well from a cognitive point of view. Surely with a few mental exercises and a good helping of fresh vegetables all will be well with me?</font></p> <p><font size="2">Stuart J. Ritchie,, Elliot M. Tucker-Drob, Simon R. Cox, Janie Corley, Dominika Dykiert, Paul Redmond, Alison Pattie, Adele M. Taylor, RuthSibbett, John M. Starr, Ian J. Deary</font> <p><font size="2">Predictors of ageing-related decline across multiple cognitive functions. </font></p> <p><font size="2">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616302707</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OApnkrLgFQU/WEBFD_MhhlI/AAAAAAAACyw/0ISRJcIcO1Q/s1600-h/Ageing%252520hedgehog%252520plots%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Ageing hedgehog plots" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Ageing hedgehog plots" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-8_jAtDRs3hk/WEBFFRxC-VI/AAAAAAAACy0/XiH9h67jGvA/Ageing%252520hedgehog%252520plots_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="451"></a></p> <p><font size="2">I call these “the hedgehogs”. They show that if you give every ageing person the same starting point then they age at different speeds. This gives us all hope. It may be delusional hope, but it is hope nonetheless. What makes some of us age gracefully?</font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>It is critical to discover why some people's cognitive abilities age better than others'. We applied multivariate growth curve models to data from a narrow-age cohort measured on a multi-domain IQ measure at age 11 years and a comprehensive battery of thirteen measures of visuospatial, memory, crystallized, and processing speed abilities at ages 70, 73, and 76 years (n= 1091 at age 70). We found that 48% of the variance in change in performance on the thirteen cognitive measures was shared across all measures, an additional 26% was specific to the four ability domains, and 26% was test-specific. We tested the association of a wide variety ofsociodemographic, fitness, health, and genetic variables with each of these cognitive change factors. Models that simultaneously included all covariates accounted for appreciable proportions of variance in the cognitive change factors(e.g. approximately one third of the variance in general cognitive change). However,beyond physical fitness and possession of the APOEe4 allele, very few predictors were incrementally associated with cognitive change at statistically significant levels. The results highlight a small number of factors that predict differences in cognitive ageing, and underscore that correlates of cognitive level are not necessarily predictors of decline. Even larger samples will likely be required to identify additional variables with more modest associations with normal range heterogeneity in aging related cognitive declines.</em></font> <p><font size="2">The study has three waves of testing over six years (70 to 76 years of age), and a broad range of cognitive measures. It is also informed by the original measure of intelligence at age 11, so far better grounded than most research. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Here are the key findings:</font></p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nO23LvdgDkQ/WEBFG54t6CI/AAAAAAAACy4/gPLTgqGrk4w/s1600-h/Ageing%252520and%252520digit%252520symbol%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Ageing and digit symbol" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Ageing and digit symbol" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-FCz1TW1UYKA/WEBFHlwyVUI/AAAAAAAACy8/qY9vBhJNkyU/Ageing%252520and%252520digit%252520symbol_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="270"></a></p> <p><font size="2">If you want a really good test of decrement of ability for the over 70s, use Digit Symbol substitution. Better than a brain scan any day.</font></p> <p><font size="2">About half of the drop in function across the 13 cognitive measures is shared. “It all goes together when it goes” is at least half true. </font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>Brighter children become brighter, healthier, and fitter older adults. This ‘preserved differentiation’ appeared to last into the eighth decade of life.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>The most robust and consistent predictor of cognitive change within old age, even after control for all the other variables, was the presence of the APOEe4 allele. APOEe4 carriers showed over half a standard deviation more general cognitive decline compared to non-carriers, with particularly pronounced decline in their Speed and numerically smaller, but still significant, declines in their verbal memory. </em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Women had significantly less general cognitive decline than men, mainly centered on Crystallized ability.</em></font> <p><em><font size="2">No evidence for a relation between education (or social class) and the slope of any of the cognitive factors.</font></em> <p><font size="2">The three fitness indicators weren’t much related to the rate of cognitive decline, but taken together there was a higher correlation, but nothing in this study to test the idea that improving physical functioning would have had a cognitive sparing effect.</font> <p><font size="2">If you don’t like the general drift of these results you may wish to say that age is a social construct, that the definition of old age is arbitrary, that countries differ considerably in their classifications of the elderly, that there is no precise point at which a person becomes old and that the whole concept is meaningless, or indeed <em>totally</em> meaningless. You could also argue that people have many abilities which have not been measured by the particular tests used in these studies, and that those untested abilities probably show no decrements. For example, tuneless whistling, stirring coffee while meditating, the recollection of things past, and smiling faintly at the last but one joke in a conversation. Each person shows their genius in their own way.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Back to the results. Perhaps a younger reader would be willing to take a quick look at all of them to make sure that I have understood them properly. </font></p> <p><font size="2">On reflection, I would ask the young reader that if this complex task takes you only a moment, please delay for a while before responding to me, so as not to make the contrast in our processing speeds too evident.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-77073273128084671332016-11-25T15:54:00.001+00:002016-11-25T15:54:13.666+00:00Intelligence, emotions and personality<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">In my day, intelligence and personality required completely different lectures. Indeed, the subject areas did not overlap at all and each had a very different tone: intelligence involved intelligence tests, in which it was possible to do badly, which was certainly a disappointment to many in the class, and a source of much anti-IQ resentment. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Personality, on the other hand, was a bit less daunting, in that there were said to be no wrong answers. That wasn’t entirely true, but there were crumbs of comfort for almost everybody. It was implied that all personality types had their uses, “it takes all types to make a world” and that they would form a happy team if selected and organised properly.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Then some new ideas came up. The first and highly popular notion was that in addition to boring old analytic intelligence some people had an ability which really mattered: emotional intelligence. The term quickly became synonymous with a sensitive, perceptive, positive person, able to succeed in real life in ways that a sharper, colder, analytic mind would find difficult, if not impossible. The emotionally intelligent were intelligent about emotions: they could spot them and manage them, secret agents of the unconscious. The corporate world embraced the notion of EQ, the Emotional Quotient they sought in their employees. </font></p> <p><font size="2">It took some time for those who had been actually researching the area to make the public understand that the popular term conflated two apparently different things: aspects of personality associated with success in life, and the ability to understand other people’s emotions. The first half was just plain old Personality. The second half was what the researchers were interested in: whether some people had a specific skill in understanding other people’s emotional states.</font></p> <p><font size="2">So, leaving aside personality, and looking only at the putative new emotional-state-understanding-skill, they designed tests of emotional intelligence. This proved to be quite difficult. After a decade of work they found that there was some evidence for this skill, but to my reading no more outstanding than a minor subtest in a general intelligence test. Working out the emotions of others is related to general intelligence.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Meanwhile, over in the personality camp, not only had the field agreed that 5 main factors were a good resolution of the observed findings on the many proposed dimensions of personality, but some went further, and said that those five factors could be resolved into one general factor of personality. I like this idea, if only because I noted how much workplace gossip centred round complaining about uncooperative people, and the cooperative/uncooperative axis is an important aspect of the general factor of personality.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Now van der Linden et al. come along with a meta-analysis which seems to resolve the matter very neatly. They argue that the general factor of personality and emotional intelligence are one and the same thing.</font></p> <p><font size="2">van der Linden, D., Pekaar, K. A., Bakker, A. B., Schermer, J. A., Vernon, P. A., Dunkel, C. S., & Petrides, K. V. (2016, November 14). Overlap Between the General Factor of Personality and Emotional Intelligence: A Meta-Analysis. Psychological Bulletin. Advance online publication. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/bul0000078</font> <p><font size="2"><em>We examine the relationship between the general factor of personality (GFP) and emotional intelligence (EI) and specifically test the hypothesis that the GFP is a social effectiveness factor overlapping conceptually with EI. Presented is an extensive meta-analysis in which the associations between the GFP, extracted from the Big Five dimensions, with various EI measures is examined. Based on a total sample of k 142 data sources ( N 36,268) the 2 major findings from the meta-analysis were (a) a large overlap between the GFP and trait EI (r .85); and (b) a positive, but more moderate, correlation with ability EI (r .28). These findings show that high-GFP individuals score higher on trait and ability EI, supporting the notion that the GFP is a social effectiveness factor. The findings also suggest that the GFP is very similar, perhaps even synonymous, to trait EI.</em></font> <p><a title="https://www.researchgate.net/requests/attachment/26085345" href="https://www.researchgate.net/requests/attachment/26085345"><font size="2">https://www.researchgate.net/requests/attachment/26085345</font></a> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nTuao_J1jQw/WDheoVcmKNI/AAAAAAAACyE/DpxONkWMxG8/s1600-h/general%252520factor%252520personality%252520and%252520emotional%252520intelligence%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="general factor personality and emotional intelligence" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="general factor personality and emotional intelligence" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-7BBWF3V0SM0/WDhepPGmr9I/AAAAAAAACyI/Sbg2G6vPmOU/general%252520factor%252520personality%252520and%252520emotional%252520intelligence_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="389"></a> <p> <p><em><font size="2">Scoring high or low on the GFP would not necessarily indicate a good versus bad personality (Rushton & Irwing, 2011). Instead, it would mainly reflect the extent to which one uses emotional knowledge and skills in order to cooperate with others and obtain personal goals. Note that such knowledge and skills can, in principle, be used for ethical (e.g., maintaining friendships and working in teams) or unethical (e.g., deceiving and corrupting others) causes. Thus, similar to EI, the GFP can have a “bright” as well as a “dark” side.</font></em> <p><font size="2"><em>In the fullness of time, instead of having to rely on theoretically fuzzy linear combinations of the Big Five factors, we will be able to utilize coherent constructs that have been specifically aligned to the core psychological processes underlying the emotional and social aspects of human behaviour.</em></font></p> <div style="cursor: text; font-family: ; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; position: absolute; text-transform: none; color: ; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; left: 258px; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; top: 528px; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); text-indent: 0px; transform-origin: 0% 0% 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font face="Times New Roman"><font style="font-size: 7pt" color="#000000">k</font></font></div> <div style="cursor: text; font-family: ; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; position: absolute; text-transform: none; color: ; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; left: 271px; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; top: 523px; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); text-indent: 0px; transform-origin: 0% 0% 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 7pt" color="#000000"></font></font></div> <div style="cursor: text; font-family: ; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; position: absolute; text-transform: none; color: ; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; left: 419px; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; top: 523px; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); text-indent: 0px; transform-origin: 0% 0% 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 7pt" color="#000000"></font></font></div> <div style="cursor: text; font-family: ; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; position: absolute; text-transform: none; color: ; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; left: 486px; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; top: 542px; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); text-indent: 0px; transform-origin: 0% 0% 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 7pt" color="#000000"></font></font></div> <div style="cursor: text; font-family: ; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; position: absolute; text-transform: none; color: ; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; left: 316px; orphans: 2; widows: 2; margin: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; top: 560px; padding-right: 0px; background-color: rgb(255,255,255); text-indent: 0px; transform-origin: 0% 0% 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px"><font face="Arial"><font style="font-size: 7pt" color="#000000"></font></font></div> <p><font size="2">This is interesting work, but there are some cautionary notes. No intelligence tests were given, so we cannot really say how much these personality aspects relate to real ability. Nor did they include measures of social desirability, also known as lying. Odd as it may seem, some respondents do not admit to having lousy personalities and appalling habits. In my view personality is best measured by observed behaviour, not questionnaire responses. </font></p> <p><font size="2">All those points apart, (which the authors put forward as limitations), they do not hide the fact that this is an elegant simplification of some complicated constructs, and may indeed lead us to a more coherent understanding of emotional and social behaviour.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-42220313296790966202016-11-23T15:32:00.001+00:002016-11-23T15:32:39.752+00:00Fourth Blog Birthday<p> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dk_ECj7Lg30/WDW2d2lD1TI/AAAAAAAACw4/1GKt2f-BaKo/s1600-h/Birthday%252520candle%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img title="Birthday candle" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Birthday candle" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-EHyreMdxLnY/WDW2emoUejI/AAAAAAAACw8/ss0P20tJcEM/Birthday%252520candle_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="531" height="772"></a></p> <p><font size="2"></font> <p><font size="2">A blogger is a harmless drudge, a filter paper between a sack of coffee beans and a small expresso.</font> <p><font size="2">On the positive side, there is a sack of information to be read in the torrent of publications on intelligence. On the negative side, there is an even greater Sargasso Sea of mangled misunderstanding about human ability.</font> <p><font size="2">The torrent of publications would be unmanageable were it not for trusted researchers, many first met at ISIR conferences, who guide me to what they think of value, and at my request send me their own papers when they think they would suit the interests of Psychological Comments: interesting, new, and going faithfully in the direction of the evidence, not the preferred argument. I cannot always comment in detail on all of them, and in future I will try to at least mention those I have read even if I have not commented on them.</font> <p><font size="2">The Sargasso Sea of mangled misunderstanding I come across in newspapers and broadcast media never fails to irritate me. At times I feel I patrol the news, or at least that part of it which relates to human ability and life outcomes, on the lookout for egregious errors. The themes are repetitive: IQ does not exist; or cannot be measured; or can be measured much better by multiple intelligence, personal intelligence, emotional intelligence, rationality or motivation; can be boosted by a myriad of techniques including heroic training routines, more sleep and lunchtime naps, alertness drugs, and cunning new methods of instruction; and intelligence isn’t much use anyway, because achievement depends on motivation, luck, class, money, privilege; and finally, too much intelligence drives people nuts.</font> <p><font size="2">After all that provocation, it is with some surprise that I find myself still here, writing for those who bother to read essays, and who are interested to note how so many claims about intelligence fall apart if you bother the plod through the whole paper, and the appendixes. Thanks for being loyal readers.</font> <p><font size="2">To those who come across the blog, and then leave promptly in dismay at the Tables, Figures, Supplementary Appendixes and statistics: I am sorry your stay was so brief, but I do not blame you. Reading this blog will not boost your IQ nor the dimensions or performance of your private parts. It may, however, enlarge your understanding of intelligence research.</font> <p><font size="2">As per tradition, the blog birthday picture always shows one candle, so that we can acknowledge the triumph of survival undimmed by the metronome of mortality.</font> <p><font size="2">Here are are the top ten all time posts:</font> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AhhcyITJt1s/WDW2fQ_wq4I/AAAAAAAACxA/gGg9QdOe57k/s1600-h/4th%252520blog%252520post%252520totals%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="4th blog post totals" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="4th blog post totals" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-h9xXIYZkNgQ/WDW2gt0tNCI/AAAAAAAACxE/914nRKrXD2c/4th%252520blog%252520post%252520totals_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="366"></a></font><font size="2"></font></p> <p><font size="2">Most of these are old favourites which have first mover advantage. Good to see Digit Span rising so well.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Top ten referring sites</font></p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0XqR2tQsnAM/WDW2hYF0WKI/AAAAAAAACxI/4sSj5jDa2-M/s1600-h/4th%252520blog%252520referring%252520sites%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="4th blog referring sites" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="4th blog referring sites" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-H16vf9rBHBs/WDW2iGDx8DI/AAAAAAAACxM/ngssFHFI9sM/4th%252520blog%252520referring%252520sites_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="261"></a></font> <p><font size="2">Twitter is the big leader, Google almost equal in size, but a respectable number of readers come straight to the blog. Thanks to Steve Sailer and others at Unz.com and HBDchick and others elsewhere for their support.</font> <p><font size="2">Top ten reader nations</font> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-587kuudn3Jo/WDW2i_K6N1I/AAAAAAAACxQ/q_rOYERTvk4/s1600-h/4th%252520blog%252520countries%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="4th blog countries" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="4th blog countries" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-imUDAOwiNEo/WDW2jj9iwkI/AAAAAAAACxU/wxkNUZhQGhU/4th%252520blog%252520countries_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="374" height="484"></a></font> <p><font size="2">The US leads the way, 5 times more numerous than the UK in second place. Russia surprises me (Anatoly Karlin may have the explanation), also Ukraine.</font> <p><font size="2">Pageviews totals for 4th Blog Birthday</font> <p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-4VTJIOvG4ao/WDW2kSmxvCI/AAAAAAAACxY/mtPxCrzDftA/s1600-h/4th%252520blog%252520total%252520pageviews%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="4th blog total pageviews" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="4th blog total pageviews" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-1tF50Uwte8E/WDW2lWRUtcI/AAAAAAAACxc/OiqHB2abXjg/4th%252520blog%252520total%252520pageviews_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="165"></a> <p><font size="2"></font> <p><font size="2">Last four years of total page views</font> <blockquote> <p align="left"><font size="2"> Pageviews Twitter followers</font> <p align="left"><font size="2">Year 1 71,701 199</font> <p align="left"><font size="2">Year 2 313,753 597</font> <p align="left"><font size="2">Year 3 657,875</font> <font size="2">1,457</font> <p align="left"><font size="2">Year 4 1,o18,236 2,383</font></p></blockquote> <p align="left"> <p align="left"><font size="2">According to Klear, my tweets are seen by a “true reach” average of 516 users (though individual “impressions” can be as high as 10,000). My followers are 30 years of age on average, 74% men, and 30% overall are considered influential. </font> <p><font size="2">Reflections</font></p> <p><font size="2">I have written 755 posts over these 4 years. I have achieved more readers than I imagined possible. Getting over a million page views is a big deal for me. I am sure that my blog has been read more in 4 years than my publications in 48 years. Indeed, because I published relatively little, I can be sure about it. If only blogging had been an option when I started out on my career, such as it was. However, lest I seem to be sneering at the Past, the 5 or 6 television programs I presented (usually 45 minutes long) were watched by one or two million viewers; the news interviews (usually 2 minutes long) could get audiences of five million, and the Chilean miners coming out one by one from their collapsed mine (one whole day in the BBC studio) got a good chunk of the reported one billion global audience. Old fashioned media are good at covering big events. </font></p> <p><font size="2">I digress. Back to blogging. </font><font size="2">I can still remember wondering if anyone would read my comments, and whether it was worth continuing. Even after a million page views it still feels as if I am whispering against a barrage of loudhailers. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Now over to you. Bring at least one person to read the blog, preferably a researcher, lecturer, teacher or student. Just one. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Thanks for reading.</font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-60429928194419798172016-11-17T15:27:00.001+00:002016-11-17T15:27:17.568+00:00Stereotypes about immigrant criminality<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">Writing a blog can be fun. Post something up one day, get someone writing in with a good tip about another subject for the next day.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The notion that immigrants are criminal has been described as a stereotype. As you know, a stereotype is a preliminary insight, the first step in noticing differences and encapsulating them into an association. Holding a stereotype about immigrants being criminals could be wrong and unfair. It could also be accurate and prudent.</font></p> <p><font size="2">How accurate are stereotypes about immigrants and crime? Here is a relevant paper from the United Kingdom.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Noah Carl. NET OPPOSITION TO IMMIGRANTS OF DIFFERENT NATIONALITIES CORRELATES STRONGLY WITH THEIR ARREST RATES IN THE UK.</font> <font size="2">Open Quantitative Sociology and Political Science. 10th November, 2016</font> <p><font size="2"><font style="font-weight: normal">The author says: <em>Public beliefs about immigrants and immigration are widely regarded as erroneous. For example, members of the public typically overestimate the immigrant fraction of the population by ~10–15 percentage points. On the other hand, popular stereotypes about t</em></font><font style="font-weight: normal"><em>he respective characteristics </em></font></font><font size="2"><font style="font-weight: normal"><em>of different groups (e.g., sexes, races, nationalities) are generally found to be quite accurate. </em></font></font> <p><font size="2"><em>The present study shows that, in the UK, net opposition to immigrants of different nationalities correlates strongly with the log of immigrant arrests rates (r= .77; p= 0.00002; 95% CI = [.52, .90]) and with the log of their arrest rates for violent crime (r= .77; p= 0.00001; 95% CI = [.52, .90]). </em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>This is particularly noteworthy given that Britons reportedly think that an immigrant’s criminal history should be one of the most important characteristics when considering whether he or she should be allowed in to the country. Moreover, the associations are not accounted for by a general opposition to non-Whites, non-Westerners, foreigners who do not speak English, Muslims, or those from countries with low average IQ. While circumstantial in nature, the study’s findings suggest that public beliefs about immigrants are more accurate than is often assumed.</em></font> <p align="left"><font size="2">He adds: <em>In Europe, immigrants from the West and East Asia tend to have lower crime rates, while those from the Middle East, Africa and South Asia tend to have higher crime rates (Kirkegaard, 2014; Kirkegaard, 2015). Note that this disparity is probably due to a combination of factors: relatively stable country-of-origin characteristics, the selectivity of immigrants with respect to their countries-of-origin, and perhaps differences in the treatment of immigrant groups upon arrival.</em></font></p> <p align="left"><font size="2">Crime figures from the Metropolitan Police for arrests 2008-2012 were used as the comparison.</font></p> <p align="left"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-pW9Lr7BIFKg/WC3MUJwFscI/AAAAAAAACwY/z71lajt9VSQ/s1600-h/Immigrant%252520arrest%252520rates%252520London%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Immigrant arrest rates London" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Immigrant arrest rates London" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TOOI4MThkDo/WC3MVCFApPI/AAAAAAAACwc/wpT29zAazaQ/Immigrant%252520arrest%252520rates%252520London_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="456"></a></p> <p align="left"><em><font size="2"></font></em> </p> <p><em><font size="2">Public beliefs about immigrants and immigration are widely regarded as erroneous. Yet popular stereotypes about the respective characteristics of different groups are generally found to be quite accurate. The present study has shown that, in the UK, net opposition to immigrants of different nationalities correlates strongly with the log of immigrant arrests rates and the log of their arrest rates for violent crime. </font></em> <p><em><font size="2">Indeed, they are consistent with a model of immigration preferences in which individuals’ expressed support or opposition to immigrants from different nationalities is informed by rational beliefs about the respective characteristics of those immigrant groups. The main limitation of this study is the lack of data on other characteristics of immigrant groups living in the UK, such as education, income or welfare usage (see Kirkegaard, 2014; Kirkegaard, 2015). </font></em> <p align="left"><font size="2">Read the whole paper here:</font></p> <p align="left"><a title="https://openpsych.net/files/papers/Carl_2016b.pdf" href="https://openpsych.net/files/papers/Carl_2016b.pdf"><font size="2">https://openpsych.net/files/papers/Carl_2016b.pdf</font></a></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-70879857756788932302016-11-16T14:10:00.001+00:002016-11-16T14:10:01.318+00:00The accuracy of stereotypes<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-24_BL-ijRS0/WCxorMd-0jI/AAAAAAAACv4/XlFrmghTBAQ/s1600-h/immigrants%252520in%252520Denmark%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img title="immigrants in Denmark" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="immigrants in Denmark" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-1z74uaq1iYw/WCxosB8e6jI/AAAAAAAACv8/oJUzyVSh9u0/immigrants%252520in%252520Denmark_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="644" height="484"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">Are immigrants more likely to claim benefits, or is this a stereotype? </font></p> <p><font size="2">A stereotype is a preliminary insight. A stereotype can be true, the first step in noticing differences. For conceptual economy, stereotypes encapsulate the characteristics most people have noticed. Not all heuristics are false. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Here is a relevant paper from Denmark.</font></p> <h3><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Emil_O_W_Kirkegaard"><font style="font-weight: normal" color="#000000" size="2">Emil O. W. Kirkegaard</font></a><font style="font-weight: normal" color="#000000" size="2"> and </font><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Julius_Bjerrekaer"><font style="font-weight: normal" color="#000000" size="2">Julius Daugbjerg Bjerrekær</font></a><font style="font-weight: normal" size="2">. Country of origin and use of social benefits: A large, preregistered study of stereotype accuracy in Denmark. Open Differential Psychology.</font></h3> <p><a title="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309913792_Country_of_origin_and_use_of_social_benefits_A_large_preregistered_study_of_stereotype_accuracy_in_Denmark" href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309913792_Country_of_origin_and_use_of_social_benefits_A_large_preregistered_study_of_stereotype_accuracy_in_Denmark"><font color="#000000" size="2">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309913792_Country_of_origin_and_use_of_social_benefits_A_large_preregistered_study_of_stereotype_accuracy_in_Denmark</font></a></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">This study is interesting, in that it was pre-registered, so its absence would have been noticed. It compares stereotypes against actual data to get a test of accuracy. I was particularly struck by how the authors studied the answers at each wave of data collection, and tracked down those who gave perplexing answers, then refining their survey questions to reduce misunderstandings.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The paper also points out an unremarked aspect of stereotypes: they may be too weak. Stereotypes have to show a correlation with the facts, and be good predictors. You have to get the slope right, and also the intercept. It is not enough to have a vague notion that immigrants are on benefits, you ought to be able to estimate how many are on benefits. A stronger stereotype would be a more accurate perception of reality.</font></p> <p><em><font size="2">A nationally representative Danish sample was asked to estimate the percentage of persons aged 30-39 living in Denmark receiving social benefits for 70 countries of origin (N = 766). After extensive quality control procedures, a sample of 484 persons were available for analysis. Stereotypes were scored by accuracy by comparing the estimates values to values obtained from an official source. Individual stereotypes were found to be fairly accurate (median/mean correlation with criterion values = .48/.43), while the aggregate stereotype was found to be very accurate (r = .70). Both individual and aggregate-level stereotypes tended to underestimate the percentages of persons receiving social benefits and underestimate real group differences.<br>In bivariate analysis, stereotype correlational accuracy was found to be predicted by a variety of predictors at above chance levels, including conservatism (r = .13), nationalism (r = .11), some immigration critical beliefs/preferences, agreement with a few political parties, educational attainment (r = .20), being male (d = .19) and cognitive ability (r = .22). Agreement with most political parties, experience with ghettos, age, and policy positions on immigrant questions had little or no predictive validity.<br>In multivariate predictive analysis using LASSO regression, correlational accuracy was found to be predicted only by cognitive ability and educational attainment with even moderate level of reliability. In general, stereotype accuracy was not easy to predict, even using 24 predictors (k-fold cross-validated R2 = 4%).<br>We examined whether stereotype accuracy was related to the proportion of Muslims in the groups. Stereotypes were found to be less accurate for the groups with higher proportions of Muslims in that participants underestimated the percentages of persons receiving social benefits (mean estimation error for Muslim groups relative to overall elevation error = -8.09 %points).<br>The study was preregistered with most analyses being specified before data collection began</font></em> <p><font size="2"></font><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ao44AI3zf_0/WCxotWw9VKI/AAAAAAAACwA/3YMtL_wfI-E/s1600-h/Figure-10-Mean-stereotype-and-real-values%25255B1%25255D.png"><img title="Figure-10-Mean-stereotype-and-real-values" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Figure-10-Mean-stereotype-and-real-values" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-tEY8HPb8KwU/WCxouJqptAI/AAAAAAAACwE/owV5K-l7F8w/Figure-10-Mean-stereotype-and-real-values_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="484" height="484"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2">The observed correlation of .7 is big, and useful. </font><font size="2">A majority of immigrants from Syria, Somalia and Kuwait are on benefits, as are those from Iraq and Lebanon. Even more to the point, if the benchmark is 25% for Danish citizens, then there are 19 countries with higher benefit rates. More positively, there are countries with lower rates, presumably because they are younger and employed. The data plot does not give us any guide to numbers from each country. However, later in the paper it is shown that immigrant population size is not relevant in judging benefit rates accurately.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The best predictor of having accurate stereotypes was cognitive ability (81% of simulations), followed by educational attainment (74% of simulations). Respondents <em>underestimate</em> the number of Muslims on benefits.</font></p> <p><font size="2">This is a very good paper. Data handling is exceptional, and well explained. There are lots of Figures and Tables. The sample is large and representative. The results have been looked at carefully, to identify those who participated without paying much attention to the questions. The data are available for re-analysis. </font></p> <p><font size="2">The high accuracy of aggregate stereotypes is confirmed. If anything, the stereotypes held by Danish people about immigrants underestimates those immigrants’ reliance on Danish benefits.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><a title="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309913792_Country_of_origin_and_use_of_social_benefits_A_large_preregistered_study_of_stereotype_accuracy_in_Denmark" href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309913792_Country_of_origin_and_use_of_social_benefits_A_large_preregistered_study_of_stereotype_accuracy_in_Denmark"><font size="2">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309913792_Country_of_origin_and_use_of_social_benefits_A_large_preregistered_study_of_stereotype_accuracy_in_Denmark</font></a></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-24819328506447743162016-11-12T18:36:00.001+00:002016-11-12T18:36:08.843+00:00Losing vector directions<p> <p><font size="2">A few hours ago I posted up a commentary on a paper:</font> <p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Verhulst%20B%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=22400142"><font size="2">Brad Verhulst</font></a><font size="2">, </font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Eaves%20LJ%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=22400142"><font size="2">Lindon J. Eaves</font></a><font size="2">, </font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Hatemi%20PK%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=22400142"><font size="2">Peter K. Hatemi</font></a><font size="2">. Correlation not Causation: The Relationship between Personality Traits and Political Ideologies. Am J Pol Sci. 2012; 56(1): 34–51.</font> <p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809096/"><font size="2">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809096/</font></a> <p><font size="2">Somewhat warily I added: <em>I have scrabbled around for some guidance on this</em> (personality and political attitudes) <em>and came across a single paper to start the ball rolling. You find the meta-analysis on political attitudes and we are well on our way.</em></font> <p><font size="2">Sure enough, a single paper is an insufficient basis for a comment, particularly when the authors in an Erratum later admit that:</font> <p><em><font size="2">The inter</font><font size="2">pretation of the coding of the political attitude items in </font><font size="2">the descriptive and preliminary analyses portion of the </font><font size="2">manuscript was exactly reversed. </font><font size="2">Thus, where we indi</font><font size="2">cated that higher scores in Table 1 (page 40) reflect a more </font><font size="2">conservative response, they actually reflect a more liberal </font><font size="2">response.</font></em> <p><font size="2"><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12216/pdf">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12216/pdf</a></font> <p><font size="2">My thanks to reader LemmusLemmus.</font> <p><font size="2">I have written to the author of the Erratum to ask if the original miscoding was intended as a projective test for readers. I will await the response, but the paper, in that polite phrase, is “not suitable for hypothesis testing”, and in my view should be set aside. </font> <p><font size="2">A.E. Maxwell would have said “get to know your data before worrying about statistical tests”.</font> <p> <p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-49034242315120504872016-11-12T12:32:00.001+00:002016-11-12T12:32:20.167+00:00Losing an election<p> </p> <p><font size="2">Losing an election is no fun. Hopes are dashed, and at least 4 years must pass (5 in the UK) before electors get a chance to vote the other lot out. Deferred gratification is a test of character.</font></p> <p><font size="2">It is natural for the losing side to feel incredulous when their side is defeated, particularly if opinion polls had given them false hope of victory. Since most people consort with like minded friends, they find that most of their social network have the same political opinions. This makes the loss incredible, because their personal experience validates a firmly held view, and they are unaware that it is based on a very restricted sampling of opinion. A certain egocentric perspective is required to blot out the full range of human opinion so effectively. To resurrect a battered word, <em>diversity </em>of opinion is part of life, and the losing side must always recognize that.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Ever curious, I wonder if the Left are poorer losers than the Right. </font><font size="2">The null hypothesis, of course, is that a political loss hits both sides equally, and each lose equally badly, whatever their politics.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Is this true? </font></p> <p><font size="2">I have scrabbled around for some guidance on this, and came across a single paper to start the ball rolling. You find the meta-analysis on political attitudes and we are well on our way.</font></p> <p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Verhulst%20B%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=22400142"><font color="#000000" size="2">Brad Verhulst</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, </font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Eaves%20LJ%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=22400142"><font color="#000000" size="2">Lindon J. Eaves</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, </font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Hatemi%20PK%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=22400142"><font color="#000000" size="2">Peter K. Hatemi</font></a>. <font style="font-weight: normal" size="2">Correlation not Causation: The Relationship between Personality Traits and Political Ideologies. Am J Pol Sci. 2012; 56(1): 34–51. </font></p> <p><a title="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809096/" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809096/"><font size="2">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809096/</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">The authors say:</font> </p> <p><font size="2"><em>The assumption in the personality and politics literature is that a person's personality motivates them to develop certain political attitudes later in life. This assumption is founded on the simple correlation between the two constructs and the observation that personality traits are genetically influenced and develop in infancy, whereas political preferences develop later in life. Work in psychology, behavioral genetics, and recently political science, however, has demonstrated that political preferences also develop in childhood and are equally influenced by genetic factors. These findings cast doubt on the assumed causal relationship between personality and politics. Here we test the causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes using a direction of causation structural model on a genetically informative sample. The results suggest that personality traits do not cause people to develop political attitudes; rather, the correlation between the two is a function of an innate common underlying genetic factor.</em></font> <p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Qx2B9qpRGfo/WCcL0JBWjyI/AAAAAAAACvY/NXeTMdyr0w8/s1600-h/Personality%252520and%252520political%252520views%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Personality and political views" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Personality and political views" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-u9Jcpk9TBTc/WCcL0-WKCpI/AAAAAAAACvc/dcbWy7FpM5M/Personality%252520and%252520political%252520views_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="268"></a></p> <p><font size="2">There are correlations between tough-mindedness (<strong>P</strong>sychoticism on the Eysenck personality inventory), social desirability (the Lie scale) and Neuroticism and political opinions on military, social and economic attitudes.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The authors say: </font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>Higher P scores correlate with more conservative military attitudes and more socially conservative beliefs for both females and males. For males, the relationship between P and military attitudes (r = 0.388) is larger than the relationship between P and social attitudes (r = 0.292). Alternatively, for females, social attitudes correlate more highly with P (r = 0.383) than military attitudes (r = 0.302).</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>People higher in Neuroticism tend to be more economically liberal. </em></font><font size="2"><em>That is, neurotic people are more likely to support public policies that provide aid to the economically disadvantaged (public housing, foreign aid, immigration, etc). Moreover, Neuroticism is unrelated to social ideology (r<sub>female</sub> = −0.016, r<sub>male</sub> = −0.050). This finding suggests that neurotic individuals cope with their anxiety by supporting a “social safety net” or more “liberal” economic policies rather than “liberal” social policies.</em></font> <p><font size="2">They continue: <em>There is also a substantively interesting relationship between Social Desirability and social ideology, which is larger for females (r females = −0.335; r males = −0.255). This facet of personality is highly context dependent, and therefore we can only speculate on this relationship, though our results are consistent with other conceptually similar findings. During the same time period in nationally representative samples, in several other attitude domains, liberal responses were also seen as more socially desirable (</em><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809096/#R52"><em>Kinder and Sears 1981</em></a><em>). Thus, it appears that people who are motivated to present themselves in a socially desirable light also present themselves as socially liberal. This is only the second study we are aware of to explore the relationship between any ideological dimension and social desirability, yet the findings replicate the </em><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809096/#R41"><em>Verhulst, Hatemi, and Martin (2010)</em></a><em> study on an Australian population.</em></font> <p><font size="2">So, the conventional explanation is that we have a personality difference which accounts for a political and behavioural difference. Tough-minded people are conservative in military and social matters, and would be expected to give less of a damn about ruffled feelings. Neurotic worriers want governments to help the disadvantaged, favour foreign aid, public housing and immigration. A proneness to worry may conceivably drive them to feel the pain of others, and to imagine they might one day be in need of such support themselves, so it may not all be altruistic.</font> <p><font size="2">Finally, those prone to Social Desirability effects (also known as the Lie Scale, a measure of “faking good”, or being incredibly naïve) are socially liberal.</font> <p><font size="2">On the basis of this finding, the loss of an election will be felt more strongly by the Left, mostly because they are tender minded, but also because they are worriers who feel that the poor of the world need help which will now be denied them, and that all of society should desire to be like them in their liberal attitudes (or their desire to be seen as liberal and generous). </font> <p><font size="2">From a tough-minded, emotionally stable perspective, the great Democrat sadness, emotional upset and dismay is just the wailing of the mentally afflicted, wallowing in neurotic catastrophization and self-proclaiming virtue. Republicans see the Democrat response as infantile, the abject collapse of spoilt children who cannot believe how nasty life has been to them.</font> <p><font size="2">From a tender-minded, emotionally sensitive perspective the Republican win is just an extension of the insensitive, heartless and individualistic lack of concern they habitually show to anyone who gets in their way. Democrats see the Republican joy as demonic parents: violent, fascistic, dangerous; behaviours typical of oppressors who believe that life favours the brutal.</font> <p><font size="2"><em>And so endeth the lesson.</em> </font> <p><font size="2">However, the authors want more, so they do an ACE analysis, and conclude that a latent common genetic factor drives the development of both personality traits and political attitudes. This gives them their “Correlation not Causation” title, which in fact obscures their argument. They should have titled it “Do Personality Traits and Political Ideologies have a common genetic origin?”</font> <p><font size="2"><em>For Extraversion, Neuroticism, and P the common environment is not significant in any of these variables.</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>The only personality trait that deviates from this trend is Social Desirability, characterized by large genetic and unique environmental variance components; however, there is also a significant, though more subtle, common environmental influence.</em></font> <p><em><font size="2">For political attitudes, the results are notably different. For the social and economic dimensions, the best-fitting model is the full model of additive genetic, common environmental, and unique environmental influences (ACE). There are sizable additive genetic components and substantial common environmental components to the attitudes, suggesting that individual differences in these attitude constructs are a mixture of genetic, shared, and unique environmental components. In contrast, military attitudes display a pattern of transmission similar to that of personality traits (AE), suggesting that attitudes toward the military are a function of what is learned through unique environmental (nonfamilial) influences and genetic transmission, more so than any common environmental influences.</font></em> <p><font size="2"><em>The results so far suggest that the relationship between personality traits and political attitudes is more likely a function of a common set of genes shared between the personality traits and the political attitudes.</em></font> <p align="left"><font size="2">So, as the newspaper headlines would scream: “it’s genetic”. The poor weeping Democrats cannot be blamed for their maudlin display of petulance and tearful threats of exiling themselves to Canada. Nor, indeed, can the rich chortling Republicans be blamed for their heartless offensive comments and their eagerness in sending Mexicans back to their homeland. </font> <p align="left"><font size="2">Democrats are designed to take offence, Republicans to give it.</font> <p align="left"><font size="2">Finally, I can join all the other commentators and loftily opine: <em><strong>The Country is Split.</strong></em></font>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-5409739940797661032016-11-09T22:29:00.001+00:002016-11-09T22:29:15.215+00:00Opinion palls<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">Last night I went to bed expecting a Clinton victory, because although opinion polls can be wrong, the margin of Democrat advantage exceeded the apparent margin of polling error. </font><font size="2">To further confirm my ineptitude at forecasting, I had also thought Remain would win over Leave in the Brexit referendum, for the same reason. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Today I reflect on some basic psychology, which is that attitudes do not translate directly into actions and, in a further complication, expressed attitudes differ from actual attitudes. This is particularly the case where the attitude is considered socially reprehensible, such as coveting one’s neighbours ox, or wife; being pleased when a rival fails to get a promotion; resenting a newcomer; or disliking someone because a superficial characteristic grates on your nerves. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Of course, I have always known, but often forgotten, that there is a gap between what is thought and said, and a bigger gap between what is said and done.</font></p> <p><font size="2">I also know, but often forget, that public opinion polls habitually use smaller samples than required for proper representativeness, and that the pollsters then “correct” their raw results using a set of assumptions gained from trying to correct previous errors (turnout rate, for example) whilst also looking over their shoulders at what most other polls are saying, so as to not be the odd one out. Come to think of it, the pollsters’ fascination with finding out what other people are thinking infests the poll companies themselves, and they are guided by what other poll companies are thinking. Polls of polls simply aggregate and confirm the group errors.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Will attention continue to be paid to opinion polls, given their inability to spot what the public really intend to do? The growing awareness that polls are used to influence opinion as much as to measure it has become painfully obvious. They are not trustworthy, and flourish most when people cannot work out their own opinions for themselves. No, I do not want to ban them. I just want to get out of my habit of paying them much attention.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Now, here is a quick check of the predictions I made yesterday against Edison Research exit questionnaires:</font></p> <p><em><font size="2">Most of all I wonder how years of education, which supposedly indicates an ability to evaluate arguments, will correlate with actual votes, and thereby to test the popular supposition that the better educated voters will shun the Republican candidate. I assume that sex and age will have a minor influence, but the latter might show bigger differences, with older voters more cynical and more likely to vote Republican. Race should not matter at all, because if America is a melting pot then policies not polities should prevail. If races vote en bloc (say more than 65% in one direction) then the woe betide the republic, which will become disunited genetic states.</font></em></p> <p><font size="2">Years of education</font></p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0LGfVoERaLg/WCOjGJKT_SI/AAAAAAAACuU/Pb_t8jmaxx0/s1600-h/image%25255B4%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="image" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-XRQAtXsc0lU/WCOjHC-yOVI/AAAAAAAACuY/Mq9bZaOoNLo/image_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="538" height="362"></a></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">Post-graduates voted Democrat, as expected. However, I did not consider income:</font></p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-EotGj5sdgDc/WCOjIDvlQKI/AAAAAAAACuc/dlqgUtEcO0Y/s1600-h/image%25255B10%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="image" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Aza4nTNny_8/WCOjI_wKCeI/AAAAAAAACug/F-uYvKlRBr4/image_thumb%25255B6%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="538" height="361"></a></p> <p><font size="2">There was some effect of low income boosting Democrat votes, but those with income above $50,000 were not swayed by necessity, and voted according to political preferences. Perhaps the well-educated post graduates took the sorts of degrees which did not boost their income. Psychology, anyone?</font></p> <p><font size="2">Here are the sex differences:</font></p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-61jLSEhfbSE/WCOjKgBk34I/AAAAAAAACuk/NnB0l7DCREc/s1600-h/image%25255B16%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="image" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-o9NoKfapbd4/WCOjLRVTEwI/AAAAAAAACuo/6px2jVhZHf8/image_thumb%25255B10%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="536" height="361"></a><font size="2"></font></p> <p><font size="2">In fact, much bigger than I imagined would be the case.</font></p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xs8gbJTHTWg/WCOjMVChPBI/AAAAAAAACus/zVPXNU6mPdY/s1600-h/image%25255B21%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="image" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yxwWjiWBoB4/WCOjMws4TpI/AAAAAAAACuw/L7QwE1zPc_w/image_thumb%25255B13%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="537" height="351"></a></p> <p><font size="2">The age differences were also bigger, though I got it half right, in that older voters were more likely to vote Republican than those younger than 45, and particular than those younger than 30.</font></p> <p><font size="2">As regards race, you will see that I put forward a null hypothesis I did not believe in, but wanted to test. I used to follow the majority in describing the US as a melting pot, but have come to think of it as only a dispersal ground.</font></p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-b3QFXRkF7vg/WCOjNz8vm1I/AAAAAAAACu0/SzE_s_z0hrs/s1600-h/image%25255B26%25255D.png"><img title="image" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="image" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Za6IO0mcj1E/WCOjOn2pRII/AAAAAAAACu4/0DLSMzsYIN8/image_thumb%25255B16%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="535" height="382"></a></p> <p><font size="2">Black voters are overwhelmingly Democrat, and can be considered a bloc vote. Hispanic/Latinos and Asian also meet precisely my predicted bench mark of 65% to be considered bloc voters. The “other” voters look as if they have been somewhat considering the actual policies, as do the White voters, but both are not that far off the 65% boundary I plucked out of the air as an indicator of race-based voting. Blacks to an extraordinary degree, and Hispanics and Asians to a large degree jumped left, Whites jumped right.</font></p> <p><font size="2">So, is the summary of this election “it’s race, stupid”? If so, I also predicted a Disunited Genetic States. I doubt it. Governments habitually do less than they promise, and have less influence than they imagine. The great flywheel of habit usually reigns supreme. Usually. I will consider this matter further after a good night’s sleep. </font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-65453695811125827552016-11-08T11:39:00.001+00:002016-11-08T11:39:29.494+00:00The country is split: Post-election traumatic reactions<p><font size="2"></font> <p><font size="2">Whilst the US election is still being decided, I have jumped the gun over all other commentators, and got my wise post-election explanations in first.</font> <p><font size="2">After every election commentators aver that “the country is split” and then explain how a massive fault line runs between the winners and the losers. This is interesting, but it is not clear how any election could be conducted without the country being split, because even a large majority vote would reveal that the smaller number of losers were split off from the winning majority. It is precisely because people are not all of one mind that elections are held, in order to find out which view is supported by the majority.</font> <p><font size="2">The next delusion, particularly when one party’s vote is very similar to the other party, is that the voters all collaborated in not giving either party a majority. That is to say, that there was a version of the Parliamentary pairing procedure whereby one Member of Parliament agrees with another Member from the opposite party that both will not attend a debate and will not vote, and will instead go to attend to other matters, commonly a mistress. (If it turns out to be the same mistress, I presume the arrangement breaks down somewhat).</font> <p><font size="2">In the case of a finely balanced election result, this type of pairing arrangement, commentators pronounce, has percolated through to the general public, who have decided that neither party deserves unfettered access to power. Perhaps. However, how does an equal vote by telepathic balancing compare to the simpler case of two sides virulently disagreeing with each other, but being unable to muster enough votes to crush the other side? Sometime the country <em>is</em> split, and has very different views as to which policies are required. The parsimonious explanation is that neither side was able to gain advantage, despite their best efforts. Balancing with the other dreadful lot was the last thing on anyone’s mind.</font> <p><font size="2">So, the results of the election always have the same underlying features: voters chose which party to support for their own idiosyncratic ends, and the commentators explain their supposed deep reasons after the event. That does not mean that I turn my eyes away from those sub-group analyses beloved of political specialists. What will I be interested in seeing after the US election? </font> <p><font size="2">Most of all I wonder how years of education, which supposedly indicates an ability to evaluate arguments, will correlate with actual votes, and thereby to test the popular supposition that the better educated voters will shun the Republican candidate. I assume that sex and age will have a minor influence, but the latter might show bigger differences, with older voters more cynical and more likely to vote Republican. Race should not matter at all, because if America is a melting pot then policies not polities should prevail. It races vote en bloc (say more than 65% in one direction) then the woe betide the republic, which will become disunited genetic states.</font> <p><font size="2">Yes, I know that years married will probably be the best predictor, as Steve Sailer has shown, with the longest married being the most Republican, the one night stands most Democrat, but I was saving that for last.</font> <p><font size="2">Does the US have a mechanism for doing the whole thing again and again, a Hanging Chad constitutional loophole which iterates a bootstrapping procedure to overcome the poverty of historicism?</font> <p><font size="2">Just asking.</font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-91527189350268753802016-11-07T14:44:00.001+00:002016-11-07T14:44:34.382+00:00Advice to persons about to elect a government<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-CBgeV1KaUSY/WCCTT5h-i-I/AAAAAAAACt8/-C6HIS_EnQc/s1600-h/every%252520vote%252520counts%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img title="every vote counts" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="every vote counts" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-P1PczUzUL2E/WCCTUeXbHqI/AAAAAAAACuA/iGt4KQI_qxE/every%252520vote%252520counts_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="484" height="484"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">Some people think it is not worth voting because their individual vote is insignificant when compared to the total electorate. For example, the total US electorate is estimated to be 226 million, against which most individuals would consider themselves to be insignificant. The basis of that particular argument is what I call the metric shift illusion:</font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>The “metric shift” illusion is a common ploy, particularly when someone has an axe to grind. “If everyone were to switch off just one light bulb, we could close a power station”. (Marvellous, but how many power stations are there? A small reduction in power consumption will lead to a small reduction in power generation, and not a kilowatt more than that). “Just one penny of tax will raise X million of money for good causes”. (Bless, but removing an additional penny from each pound of income will take a large amount of earnings from every citizen, and they probably regard their own choices as better than bureaucrats’ choices). “An enormous number of citizens are diagnosed every year with Horrible Disorder X”. (My sincere commiserations, but either give me the total numbers for all other disorders, or just give me the rate per 100,000 so I can put all disorders in all nations onto a common metric. Also, “diagnosed” is not equivalent to “about to die from”).</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">The metric shift illusion obscures the fact that voters in an election have just as much influence in that activity as they do in any other activity: switching off lights; giving up meat; selling their car in favour of a bicycle, picking up litter; being courteous to strangers; not making noise at night, shooting stray dogs. In both the election of governments and the election of activities they can exert influence at a national level. Really, <em>each individual should compare the influence they have when they exert themselves against the smaller amount of influence they have when they do not.</em> Seen in that light, citizens can attempt to boost their influence both electorally and behaviourally by talking to others about the reasons for their choices, and encouraging others to act like them. (That is a minority pursuit, probably restricted to about 4% of the population). Even then, activists on one side tend to cancel out activists on the other side, but one side wins out over the other often enough to encourage further activism, if only out of a thirst for revenge. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Of course, in an <em>reductio ad absurdum, </em>if everyone believed that it was not worth voting, no one would vote. Therefore, those who fail to understand the consequences, and thus do not vote, disenfranchise themselves on the basis of a misunderstanding. Possibly that boosts the average IQ of the remaining voters, but it most certainly boosts their influence on national affairs.</font></p> <p><font size="2">At this stage you might imagine that I am about to encourage US citizens to vote. Not really. Voting should be voluntary, and whether you want to vote or not is up to you. One proviso: if you don’t vote, don’t bemoan the governments you get.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Ever the contrarian, there is an argument that large scale national decisions have less impact on the average citizen than very local issues. The location of noxious factory or busy road, the management of local schools and hospitals, the probity and efficacy of the local Police force, the quality of mercy of your neighbours: all these may be far more impactful on your life than international conferences and the machinations of national legislators. Therefore, you might wish to be most active in local matters, and always vote in local elections, and always agitate for the changes which which concern you and your back yard. Let the big distant problems remain distant.</font></p> <p><font size="2">I pause for a moment to consider this notion. Nope, it doesn’t work. If a nation votes for open borders then your locality will face issues which are not of your own making. Equally, if your nation votes for or against free trade that will impact you more than a noisy local road, irritating as that may be. </font><font size="2">Oh dear. Perhaps it would be best for you to vote after all, not that I would wish to impose anything on you, though if you don’t vote, that which will be imposed upon you will be done so without your consent or, more accurately, with your tacit approval.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Up to you. You could stay home and read de Tocqueville. Let me know when the whole thing is over.</font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-32348580639606739242016-11-03T13:55:00.001+00:002016-11-03T13:55:55.434+00:00Election Special: Are Republicans brighter than Democrats?<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-r-ZPThguB84/WBtB3NvbcfI/AAAAAAAACtM/oIzY2ojXT1A/s1600-h/trumpclintonaa%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img title="trumpclintonaa" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="trumpclintonaa" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-H9ws0od9xcg/WBtB3zAGt0I/AAAAAAAACtQ/JtM6ecdXsec/trumpclintonaa_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="644" height="364"></a></p> <p><font size="2">As you know, I don’t do policy, but I am aware that there is an election happening in the US, and it is a particular feature of this election that each side is accusing the other side of being very stupid. You may feel that one side does it more than another, but that is one of the features of taking sides. No surprise about this polarization: the preferences of others can be bewildering, and stupidity is a plausible cause of the odd choices other people make. </font></p> <p><font size="2">As a general rule, democratic choices will tend to reflect the average mental ability of electors, who have to work out which party is best for them and for their country (which equates to what is best for them in the long run). This requires them to understand what is being offered, determine how sensible those offers are, and how likely they are to be delivered. This is usually a difficult process, ideally requiring a detailed examination of policy positions, a careful study of what might happen as a consequence of the projected changes, and an evaluation of each party’s track record in implementing new laws. These are complex matters, requiring high ability and persistence. Thinking that hard about how to vote is probably a minority interest. Talking of minorities, i</font><font size="2">n a representative democracy</font><font size="2"> one hopes that the elected might be brighter than the average elector. Hopes. The intelligence level of the elected leadership is an important matter, as well as their probity.</font></p> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/the-intelligence-of-governments.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/the-intelligence-of-governments.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/the-intelligence-of-governments.html</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">The method for determining the intellectual ability of electors of different parties should be simple: find a dataset which contains mental ability measures and political allegiance classifications, and see what the scores look like for each political party.</font></p> <p><font size="2">However, not all researchers are in favour of simple approaches. They seem to find them crude, misleading, and even vulgar. So, in addition to tussles between Democrats and Republicans we have a battle between the research parties of Descriptive Statistics and Corrected Confections. I make no pretence of neutrality on this issue: I think researchers should start with Descriptive Statistics, and then give justifications at each stage as they apply each putative “correction”. This allows us to make our own choices about each correction: is it justified, and worth applying, or are important issues being smoothed away? </font></p> <p><font size="2">Noah Carl (2014) found that Republicans were brighter than Democrats by 2-3 IQ points, and that a Republican advantage held true even when allowance was made for socio-economic status. The IQ difference was largest for committed supporters of each party. Sample sizes were large in his study, and the mean differences sufficient to have real life consequences.</font></p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-LYX3wWyRfHM/WBtB4SDXqPI/AAAAAAAACtU/9XEBKozXbW4/s1600-h/Republicans%252520brighter%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Republicans brighter" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Republicans brighter" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-5w4iQyvciyg/WBtB5LooXmI/AAAAAAAACtY/mej-Z4UAOj8/Republicans%252520brighter_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="166"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2">Note that among committed supporters Republicans are 5 IQ points ahead on Vocabulary and 3 IQ points ahead on probability, verbal reasoning and comprehension. Brighter, in fact. Assume for the purposes of argument that Democrats are IQ 99 and Republicans IQ 102 thus reflecting the observed 3 point difference which I will take as a summary of the results. Then at IQ 130 (+2 sigma, or elite university level equivalent) we will find 1.9% of Democrats and 3.1% of Republicans. Highest paying jobs will mostly be obtained by Republicans. At +1 sigma, corresponding to white collar jobs, we will find 14.3% of Democrats and 19.3% of Republicans. Finally, if we consider an IQ of 93 to be required for most reasonable jobs, then 34.5% of Democrats will be rejected, and only 27.4% of Republicans. Differences of a mere 3 IQ points on average become more evident at the extremes, and can inflame political discussions. Democrats will be slightly more likely to feel aggrieved about job opportunities and status than Republicans.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Here is the link to the Noah Carl (2014b) paper:</font></p> <p><a title="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZdWRRTVMzN0lWa0U/view?usp=sharing" href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZdWRRTVMzN0lWa0U/view?usp=sharing"><font size="2">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZdWRRTVMzN0lWa0U/view?usp=sharing</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">What does Yoav Ganzach (2016) find?</font></p> <p><font size="2">Cognitive ability and party identity: No important differences between </font><font size="2">Democrats and Republicans. Intelligence 58 (2016) 18-21</font> <p><font size="2">Here is the link to the Yoav Ganzach paper:</font> <p><a title="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZV0l5dVRrS0czUEU/view?usp=sharing" href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZV0l5dVRrS0czUEU/view?usp=sharing"><font size="2">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZV0l5dVRrS0czUEU/view?usp=sharing</font></a> <p><font size="2">Unfortunately, I cannot give a simple account of what he finds, because I cannot find a table in Ganzach’s paper which plainly compares the raw scores for Republicans and Democrats as done by Noah Carl above. Table 1 could have given the raw results, but instead gives correlations, and this obscures a plain understanding of the IQ differences between the parties. </font> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-P3LRot1isrs/WBtB5209QPI/AAAAAAAACtc/y0FatvOOr_U/s1600-h/Republican%252520intelligence%252520correlations%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Republican intelligence correlations" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Republican intelligence correlations" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-GII1kPG995Y/WBtB6gjtjbI/AAAAAAAACtg/60xOj6OZTSU/Republican%252520intelligence%252520correlations_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="170"></a> <p><font size="2">The intellectual measures are positively correlated with White and negatively correlated with Black. </font><font size="2">Instead of means there are many tables of regressions once the “controls” have been activated. Here is Ganzach’s argument: </font> <p><font size="2"><em>The zero order correlations between our measures of cogni</em></font><font size="2"><em>tive abilities and our measures of republican identi</em></font><font size="2"><em>fi</em></font><font size="2"><em>cation are signi</em></font><font size="2"><em>fi</em></font><font size="2"><em>cantly positive for three of our four measures of cognitive ability </em></font><font size="2"><em>(p< </em></font><font size="2"><em>0.0001), indicating that without controlling for SES and race, the </em></font><font size="2"><em>cognitive abilities scores are higher for those who identify as republi</em></font><font size="2"><em>cans than for those who identify as democrats. </em></font><font size="2"><em>However, when SES and race are controlled these differences disap</em></font><font size="2"><em>pear and even reverse.</em></font> <p><font size="2">Ganzach argues that Carl should have done an additional correction for race, and that when that alteration is made then the Republican advantage is not present. Of course, another interpretation, as Ganzach is well aware and discusses at the end of his paper, is that he reveals the Republican advantage only to make it disappear by assuming that Black Democrats can be controlled away. If that is done, one can show that White Democrats are as bright as White Republicans. This is in line with previous <a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/are-lefties-clever-or-just-grasping.html" href="https://findings"><font color="#000000">findings</font></a><font color="#000000">:</font> you can be on the Left because you are clever, or because you seek a compensation payment.</font> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/are-lefties-clever-or-just-grasping.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/are-lefties-clever-or-just-grasping.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/are-lefties-clever-or-just-grasping.html</font></a> <p><font size="2">I find it tiresome when researchers repeat the Sociologists Fallacy that it is right to “correct” for social class, as if people were allocated to occupations randomly in an experimental model. Not so. Brighter and more diligent persons tend to get better occupations, and to try to wash that away with a regression loading (a penalty for education and income) is to ignore reality. (In this case the SES measures used were years of education and income).</font></p> <p><font size="2">Similarly with race. If more Black Americans vote Democrat, thus lowering the average intelligence levels for that party, that is a fact of political life. Sure, it would be interesting to look at the intelligence of white Republicans and white Democrats, but it does not deny the facts on the ground when the question is whether Republicans are brighter than Democrats as a whole. </font></p> <p><font size="2">The author concludes: </font><font size="2"><em>The two studies presented in this paper suggest that once SES and </em></font><font size="2"><em>race are controlled for, there is a very little difference between Demo</em></font><font size="2"><em>crats and Republicans in cognitive ability.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">He adds: </font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>Could it be argued that controlling for race and SES obscures the real </em></font><font size="2"><em>relationship between cognitive ability and party identity, and that the </em></font><font size="2"><em>effects of race and SES on party identity are really effects of cognitive </em></font><font size="2"><em>ability? This argument is not in line with the view that to demonstrate </em></font><font size="2"><em>convincingly that between-groups differences in an ability test are asso</em></font><font size="2"><em>ciated with between-groups differences in GMA, it is also necessary to </em></font><font size="2"><em>demonstrate that between-individuals differences within each of the </em></font><font size="2"><em>groups are associated with between-individuals differences in GMA </em></font><font size="2"><em>(</em></font><font size="2"><em>Jensen, 1998; Jensen & Figueroa, 1975</em></font><font size="2"><em>). This is not the case for party </em></font><font size="2"><em>identity since although between-groups differences in party identity </em></font><font size="2"><em>are associated with between-groups differences in cognitive ability, </em></font><font size="2"><em>within each of the groups party identity is not associated with cognitive </em></font><font size="2"><em>ability.</em></font> <p><font size="2">Comment: I find this difficult to follow. Party identity is not an achievement score, and does not have as much range as mental ability, so correlations are restricted in range. More to the point, we do not have to prove anything. We just observe that one group is brighter than another because of the intellectual level of the people they attract.</font> <p><font size="2"><em>Within the context of the current study, cognitive ability may have </em></font><font size="2"><em>three important associations with party identity. It is associated with </em></font><font size="2"><em>party identity because (1) people who come from higher SES strata </em></font><font size="2"><em>tend to score higher on cognitive ability tests as well as to identify </em></font><font size="2"><em>more with the Republican party; (2) Blacks tend to score lower on </em></font><font size="2"><em>cognitive ability tests as well as to identify more with the Democratic </em></font><font size="2"><em>party; and (3) the level of cognitive processing associated with identify</em></font><font size="2"><em>ing as a Democrat is different from the level of cognitive processing as</em></font><font size="2"><em>sociated with identifying as a Republican. Thus, although Republicans </em></font><font size="2"><em>may very well score higher in cognitive ability tests, this effect is, in </em></font><font size="2"><em>our view, of little interest since it could be explained by SES and by eth</em></font><font size="2"><em>nic differences in test scores. The question of real interest is whether </em></font><font size="2"><em>there are differences in the level of cognitive processing necessary for </em></font><font size="2"><em>adopting a Democrat vs. Republican identity, or, roughly speaking, </em></font><font size="2"><em>whether is it more intelligent to be a Republican than to be a Democrat.</em></font> <p><font size="2">Comment: I do not know if there are different mental processes involved in joining different parties. The parsimonious model would be that people join the parties which reflect their values and their needs. Black Americans probably feel that the Democratic party is closer to their causes and offers them more, and that is enough for any voter. The crunch comes in the penultimate sentence above: <em><font size="2">although Republicans </font><font size="2">may very well score higher in cognitive ability tests, this effect is, in </font><font size="2">our view, of little interest since it could be explained by SES and by eth</font></em><font size="2"><em>nic differences in test scores. </em>I disagree that it can be “explained” because there is an equally strong explanation that brighter people become Republicans because they understand that Republican economic and social policies are better in the long run. The American Dream and so on. As part of this intelligence-based explanation, any less bright group will be less likely to understand those benefits. (This is easily testable, by looking at the voting preferences of all minorities ranked by intellect. How do the Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese people in the US vote: Democrat or Republican? Which way do Mexicans incline? Democrat or Republican?)</font></font> <p><font size="2"><em>As our results indicate, the answer to this question is negative. </em></font> <p><font size="2">Comment: In fact positive, before corrections render the difference “unimportant”.</font> <p><font size="2"><em>Finally, we note that the issue of applying appropriate controls is a </em></font><font size="2"><em>fundamental issue in intelligence research. Many studies in the intelli</em></font><font size="2"><em>gence literature adopt a conservative approach, and assess the effect </em></font><font size="2"><em>of intelligence only after controlling for basic background variables </em></font><font size="2"><em>such as race and SES. Other studies, including recent studies about the </em></font><font size="2"><em>relationships between intelligence and political attitudes (</em></font><font size="2"><em>Carl, 2015; </em></font><font size="2"><em>Solon, 2014</em></font><font size="2"><em>), assess the effect on intelligence without partialing out </em></font><font size="2"><em>the effects of background variables. It is still an open question whether </em></font><font size="2"><em>the results of these recent studies hold when control for such variables </em></font><font size="2"><em>is exerted.</em></font> <p><font size="2">Comment: how can a contentious “correction” take precedence over the simple results? Surely one should have the simple description first, and the controlled version second? We should start by being impartial, and then by exploratory degrees consider the arguments for adjusting the findings, justifying each use of partialing out of presumed confounders. </font> <p><font size="2">It is a pity that one can read the entire paper without finding means and standard deviations (remember those?) for the ability measures by race and by social class. That would allow readers, by comparing the results with those derived from other samples, to judge whether they are in the right ball park with other research. Why obscure the most important data when you are writing a paper about cognitive ability? The paper says: “no important differences”. Well, where are the differences in plain text so that we can judge for ourselves?</font></p> <p><font size="2">Now to the upcoming US election. I am aware that intelligence is only one ingredient in voting behaviour, and that deep emotions are stirred by politics, leading to tribal loyalty and blind allegiance to all manner of absurdities. However, to my mind the question, shorn of adjustments, is answered thus: Republicans are brighter than Democrats. So, it follows that we intelligence researchers must predict that Republicans will make the best choice, the one most soundly based on an appreciation of reality, and will make the most accurate prediction as to what would be best for America. The implication is that Republicans will make better choices. <font size="2">That is the theory, and I stand by it, in the sense of backing it only until better data becomes available and it is proven wrong. </font></font></p> <p><font size="2">However, if Republicans are truly brighter than average there will probably be fewer of them than Democrats, just as a feature of the bell curve, so they will lose the election, since all votes count equally and are not “corrected” for intelligence.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Do let me know how the whole US election thing turns out. On reflection, let me know 4 years from now. No sense in rushing to judgment on these important matters. </font></p> <p><font size="2">To quote my Twitter self: Hard to say which is worse: the party you vote for fails to get in, or the party you vote for gets in and fails you.</font><font size="2"></font></p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-69812727659495446782016-10-28T20:57:00.001+01:002016-10-28T20:57:30.427+01:00No sex differences in Romania<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TPTT9uuOXwA/WBOs_ofroAI/AAAAAAAACsU/k1Ua7JJzK0E/s1600-h/romanian-traditional-clothing-costum%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img title="romanian-traditional-clothing-costume-romanian-people-culture" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="romanian-traditional-clothing-costume-romanian-people-culture" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-C-93EjJtWWg/WBOtATsEgMI/AAAAAAAACsY/pWPxuLq5hnE/romanian-traditional-clothing-costum%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="610" height="484"></a></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">I am slowly learning the perverse art of headline writing, but retain an inherent allegiance to telling the truth: I am sure that there are the usual sex differences in Romanian men and women, as indicated in the traditional costumes above, but apparently no consistent differences in intelligence. A null result is as important as a positive result, so this finding must enter the mix for us to ponder about. Does it show something specific about one country, or something general about our methods, or both?</font></p> <p><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/article/pii/S0160289616301003#"><font color="#000000" size="2">Dragos Iliescu</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, A</font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/article/pii/S0160289616301003#"><font color="#000000" size="2">lexandra Ilie</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/article/pii/S0160289616301003#"><font color="#000000" size="2">Dan Ispas</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/article/pii/S0160289616301003#"><font color="#000000" size="2">Anca Dobrean</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/article/pii/S0160289616301003#"><font color="#000000" size="2">Aurel Ion Clinciu</font></a>. <font color="#000000" size="2">Sex differences in intelligence: A multi-measure approach using nationally representative samples from Romania. </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/journal/01602896"><font color="#000000" size="2">Intelligence</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2"> </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/journal/01602896/58/supp/C"><font color="#000000" size="2">Volume 58</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, September–October 2016, Pages 54–6</font></p> <p><a href="http://dx.doi.org.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/10.1016/j.intell.2016.06.007"><font color="#000000" size="2">http://dx.doi.org.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/10.1016</font></a><a href="http://dx.doi.org.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/10.1016/j.intell.2016.06.007"><font color="#000000" size="2">/j.intell.2016.06.007</font></a></p> <p><font size="2"><a title="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZcENSTl9tRTZIc1k/view?usp=sharing" href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZcENSTl9tRTZIc1k/view?usp=sharing">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZcENSTl9tRTZIc1k/view?usp=sharing</a></font></p> <p><font size="2">Interestingly, the intelligence tests standardised in Romania cover the full range: almost as if no intellectual measure had been left out. Whatever the finding, one cannot easily quibble that another test would have shown a different result.</font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>However, </em>the Lynn hypothesis is that boys are late to mature, so it is only at adult ages that male advantage shows itself. The SON test goes up to 8 years, so is not relevant. The WISC-IV goes up to 17 years so is partially relevant. The Raven test covers the full age range, so <em>is</em> relevant:</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dbwnDYxyxkM/WBOtBZxWfeI/AAAAAAAACsc/PV43poAitO4/s1600-h/Romanian%252520ravens%252520adults%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Romanian ravens adults" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Romanian ravens adults" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wX-BZRiFdpk/WBOtCFA1qBI/AAAAAAAACsg/8h6wCn2fl2Q/Romanian%252520ravens%252520adults_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="461" height="484"></a></p> <p><font size="2">Sample sizes are small, which reduces the chance of “significance” but out of 13 age bands 10 show male advantage to some small degree. Advantage Lynn.</font></p> <p><font size="2">For the 12 adult groups on the MAB-II the story collapses. Overall IQ favours men for 10 out of 12, but only one is significant, the rest tiny. Performance IQ shows male advantage for 10 out of 12, but most are infinitesimal, so forgettable.</font></p> <p><font size="2">For GAMA there are 14 adult age groups, of which 11 show male advantage, but mostly tiny ones, only 3 being significant.</font></p> <p><font size="2">For IST there are 10 adult age groups, of which 2 show male advantage, and only the <em>female </em>advantage is significant.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Looking at the individual test results as a whole the picture is, as the authors imply, unconvincing on the male advantage hypothesis, even among those tests that cover adults.</font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>However, </em>almost all these tests do not report the raw scores, which is a considerable problem in ability testing. Why not? Well, many intelligence tests have idiosyncratic scoring systems according to the material used, number of items, additions for quick completion, reductions for partial errors, and so on. So the real raw scores are changed into scaled scores, and those scaled scores may be drawn from different tables according to age. There is some scope for blurring reality. It should not affect sex differences, but the change from raw to scaled scores is not something easy to track down. This certainly has an impact on Flynn effect calculations. Looking at the raw scores on coding tasks or digits forwards and backwards for each age (where the raw score <em>is</em> a real ratio scale) would be very interesting, which should knock on the head any residual doubts.</font></p> <p><font size="2">If you inspect the torrent of individual results in the paper, there is little evidence of any consistent pattern of sex differences. The sample sizes for each age band are respectable though not large, so it was with some relief that I turned to their overall meta-analysis of the results in Table 7, though that table is a little hard to read. A positive Cohen’s d score reveals a male advantage. The Q score is the Chi-square test result, with the degrees of freedom in brackets. The L squared test gives the chi-square results corrected for degrees of freedom and calculates </font><font size="2">the percentage of the variability in effect estimates that is due to heterogeneity rather than sampling error.</font></p> <p><font size="2">However, to test Lynn’s hypothesis we should have a Table 8 which restricts itself to the 17 year+ adults, up the whole age range. This would be interesting.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ohazH_N6VCk/WBOtDfMHKJI/AAAAAAAACsk/s1yvSky-Ak0/s1600-h/Romanian-sex-differences3.png"><img title="Romanian sex differences" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Romanian sex differences" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-P0med2aIGTE/WBOtEZJOjVI/AAAAAAAACso/SWbgNPytD5M/Romanian-sex-differences_thumb1.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="353"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">The authors say: <em>The only two scores with a significant (though small) effect are the Raven (d = 0.11, p < 0.01), and the Performance subscore of the SON-R (d = 0.12, p < 0.01), both in favor of males. In the case of the SON-R, medium heterogeneity is signalled by the data: Q(5) = 10.01, p < 0.10, I<sup>2</sup> = 50.04, I.e. 50% of the total variability in this set of effect sizes are due to between-subsamples variability (true heterogeneity). In the case of the Raven scores, heterogeneity is not present: Q(22) = 21.34, ns., I<sup>2</sup> = 0.00; I.e. all variability in effect size estimates is due to sampling error within subsamples.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">Of course, as Richard Lynn found out, the Wechsler may have been fiddled with a bit to brush away some sex differences, but I doubt that can have been the case for all the other measures, particularly the Raven, designed long ago.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The authors do not bother to remark on something which caught my eye: the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children shows a lot of heterogeneity on Full Scale IQ, Verbal IQ and Perceptual Reasoning IQ. The Multidimensional Aptitude Battery and Intelligence Structure tests also show a fair amount of heterogeneity, compared with none for the Raven test. Of course, Richard Lynn might argue that the children’s scale does not prove anything, but that the adult form (not used here) would do so.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The authors conclude: <em>The random and non-replicable pattern of differences observed in the current research seems to support the conclusion that any sex mean or variance differences are likely spurious and the result of sampling or measurement errors than substantive and stable effects. This conclusion is supported for both general intelligence and second-level (more specific) abilities (e.g. performance vs. reasoning, verbal vs. performance, fluid vs. crystallized).</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">Cautiously, they admit: <em>The current study has a number of limitations. First, even though all the 6 samples on which we report data are carefully selected nationally representative samples, they are not comparable in volume to some of the samples on which data was reported in other studies, such as </em><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/article/pii/S0160289616301003#bb0025"><em>Deary et al. (2003)</em></a><em>, or </em><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/science/article/pii/S0160289616301003#bb0080"><em>Lohman and Lakin (2009)</em></a><em>. Therefore, while they make an important contribution for an understudied culture, they may only have a limited impact on the international state of knowledge. Second, some of the tests used in the current research were developed to be as sex neutral as possible. At least for the WISC-IV and SON-R, item bias was examined both by trained judges and through item analysis, and the GAMA and MAB-II were developed with the clear objective of minimizing adverse impact by gender. This may have affected the results and contributed to our null effect conclusion.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">My comment: “sex neutral” sound impeccable, but the general drift of test construction is towards sex difference suppression.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Their final word: <em>Research on group differences in intelligence is a politically charged topic with important societal consequences. Therefore, we strongly encourage researchers examining group differences in intelligence to pay close attention to the quality of the samples used and make efforts for increasing their representativeness.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">In fact, I think the authors have done very well. They have set out results from many intelligence tests, not just one, on a good national sample. No, it is not the whole nation, as with the Scottish data. No, there was not a meta-analysis of the adult data separately (though it probably would not come up with much), but overall it certainly gives pause to the acceptance of the sex difference findings in other work.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Is it all down Romania, and some special sex-difference-annulling culture, as so sedulously sought by some people? Has Romania achieved what the Nordics strived for but could not attain? Although I believe in exceptional countries, as an outside observer I cannot find anything in Romania’s long and rich history which leads me to believe that sex differences were deliberately diminished. However, Romanian readers are invited to send me further and better particulars.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-20119553192813251762016-10-27T15:17:00.001+01:002016-10-28T11:46:45.458+01:00Sex differences in trauma<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-3RrgI2mxJhg/WBIMeEXVKjI/AAAAAAAACrw/X81mE2zv87c/s1600-h/Norway%252520trauma%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img title="Norway trauma" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Norway trauma" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-X-pgPH2MWfY/WBIMfEeAbUI/AAAAAAAACr0/L2wBrqT0UDs/Norway%252520trauma_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="644" height="430"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">Despite having spent much of my professional life dealing with post-traumatic reactions, I rarely blog about it. One interpretation is that it arouses painful memories, but in fact most of my memories are positive ones of patients recovering, even if for some they were only partial recoveries. Mostly I speak about it less because others have very ably taken over the task of researching the topic and explaining the results to the public.</font></p> <p><font size="2">What interests me enough to come back to the issue is a paper about sex differences in trauma responses. Psychiatric illness is more common in women (mostly anxiety and depression) as most of the evidence shows. However, this paper makes a stronger claim about sex differences, and since I have been covering sex differences from the perspective of intellectual ability, this publication comes at an apposite time.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Lassemo, E., Sandanger, I., Nygård, J.F. et al. </font><font style="font-weight: normal" size="2">The epidemiology of post-traumatic stress disorder in Norway: trauma characteristics and pre-existing psychiatric disorders</font></p> <p><font size="2">Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol (2016). doi:10.1007/s00127-016-1295-3 </font></p> <h3><a title="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00127-016-1295-3" href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00127-016-1295-3"><font style="font-weight: normal" color="#000000" size="2">http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00127-016-1295-3</font></a></h3> <p><font size="2">In its favour, this paper comes from Norway, where they do proper epidemiology and keep track of people and their health and employment records. Against it, this paper comes from Norway, which lies on a warm bed of oil revenues, shields its citizens from major privations and always balances its budget. They also have an absurdly indented coastline and are prone to seasonal depression, skiing, and watching films about log fires. Are such people truly representative of the rest of humanity? Let us find out.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The methodology is good, the trauma measures fine, the assumptions on missing data reasonable, and the statistics almost easy enough for me to understand. I have some minor quibbles. The first two paragraphs of the results section are bewilderingly similar yet contradictory, as if they were setting us a “can you spot the difference” task. Out of kindness to readers, the authors should re-write them. The frequent mention of one year and lifetime incidence and prevalence, probably corrected for age stratification confused me.</font></p> <p><font size="2">My other quibble is that they have somewhat under-displayed the sex differences, but I have tried to repair that by summarizing them for myself. First, here is their summary of their results:</font></p> <p><em><font size="2">The incidence for trauma was 466 and 641 per 100,000 PYs for women and men, respectively. The incidence of PTSD was 88 and 31 per 100,000 PYs. Twelve month and lifetime prevalence of PTSD was 1.7 and 4.3 %, respectively, for women, and 1.0 and 1.4 %, respectively, for men. Pre-existing psychiatric disorders were risk factors for PTSD, but only in women. Premeditated traumas were more harmful.</font></em></p> <p><font size="2">The authors have grouped all traumas into accidental and pre-meditated, a rough but useful distinction.</font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>In the sample, more men (n = 203, 26.2 %) than women (n = 186, 21.7 %) were exposed to PTEs (</em>potentially traumatic events)<em>(p = 0.031). Of those exposed to trauma, more women (n = 38, 20.4 %) than men (n = 10, 4.9 %) filled diagnostic criteria for PTSD (p < 0.001), yielding a lifetime prevalence of 4.4 and 1.3 %, and a 12-month prevalence of 1.8 and 0.8 % for women and men, respectively. Given that PTEs are component causes for the PTSD diagnosis—necessary, but not sufficient, no individuals will have PTSD without having experienced a trauma. The sample had an underrepresentation of persons 18–34 years of age and an overrepresentation of persons 35–65 years of age, as compared with the Norwegian population.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">I find the results section somewhat terse and hard to follow. So, I made some notes, as follows:</font></p> <p><font size="2">The sample of 1634 persons is composed of 859 women and 775 men.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Of the 859 women, 186 reported potentially traumatic events, of which 38 met the criteria for PTSD.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Of the 775, 203 men reported potentially traumatic events, of which 10 met the criteria for PTSD.</font></p> <p><font size="2">186/859 of women (21.7%) get a dose of bad events, and of those 38/186 (20.4%) get traumatized. Overall, facing the vicissitudes of life, 38/859 women (4.4 %) get traumatized.</font></p> <p><font size="2">203/775 of men (26.2%) get a dose of bad events, and of those 10/203 (5%) get traumatized. Overall, facing the vicissitudes of life, 10/775 men (1.3 %) get traumatized.</font></p> <p><font size="2">However, my summary is somewhat different from their tables, so by all means look through them, and try to make your own notes. A little tree of frequencies would have been a help, particularly in understanding the all-important issue of dose-response relationships. (Perhaps this paper doesn’t get the Thompson prize for data analysis after all).</font></p> <p><font size="2">How much does previous psychiatric disorder contribute to trauma vulnerability?</font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>The odds ratio (ORs) for conditional PTSD when suffering from pre-existing psychiatric disorders are presented, by gender, in Table </em></font><a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00127-016-1295-3#Tab2"><font size="2"><em>2</em></font></a><font size="2"><em>. For women, any pre-existing depressive, anxiety or somatoform disorder was associated with an increased risk for PTSD [OR 3.6 (95 % CI 2.6–5.0)]. </em></font><font size="2"><em>For women, pre-existing psychiatric disorder was associated with subsequent PTSD (p < 0.001). There were only a few men with pre-existing psychiatric disorders and traumatic exposure, and only one filled the diagnostic criteria for PTSD.</em></font></p> <p><em><font size="2"></font></em> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-GPGx8Bh5vLs/WBIMgCZk5FI/AAAAAAAACr4/-293TAs2i6w/s1600-h/Premeditated%252520trauma%252520Norway%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Premeditated trauma Norway" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Premeditated trauma Norway" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VpuknC0VLfA/WBIMg2ou8jI/AAAAAAAACr8/7TiiQcWvxWo/Premeditated%252520trauma%252520Norway_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="585" height="484"></a></p> <p><font size="2">Notice the extraordinary impact on women of premeditated violence, mostly verbal threats, violence from relatives, sexual assault and rape.</font></p> <p><font size="2">In sum, slightly more men get exposed to bad events, but are much less likely to be traumatized by those events, particularly when they are older than 30. Even in tranquil and wealthy Norway, about a quarter of the population are exposed to troubling events. Of course we may wonder whether the self-reports are a function of the high standards all people in the wealthy world now expect from their lives. Would occupation by a foreign power increase the reporting rate, or re-set the scale as to what constitutes a potentially traumatic event? (I think the reporting rate would go up, but data on the bombardment of Beirut many years ago showed remarkable little change).</font></p> <p><font size="2">Even in Norway, the men are tougher, putting up with more slings and arrows of fate with less emotional injury. The supposed stereotype of tough men is validated, particularly those older than 30. The authors, however, note that the stressors are somewhat different, and have different incubation periods, with women ruminating in silence about past events. Of course, the selection of what counts as upsetting is also sex-linked, so trauma will be a mixture of actual events and perceived injuries. Epictetus observed that: </font><font size="2"><em>Men are disturbed not by things, but by the view which they take of them. </em>To which I can only reply: <em>To a certain extent, mate.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">Women report more sexual abuse and rape, men more threats of physical violence.</font></p> <p><font size="2">There is lots more in the paper, so give it a look.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Finally, the authors make a point which has profound current interest: premeditation hurts people far more than true accidents. S</font><font size="2">ome commentators tell us not to respond to0 much to terrorists because they don’t kill many people. Such commentators point out that rates of death from chronic disease are far higher, as are deaths from ordinary accidents and non-political criminal assaults. All this is statistically true yet misses the main point: it is the deliberate wish to kill people for <em>who</em> they are and <em>how</em> they choose to live which is rightly seen as an assault on freedom, and a source of dismay, incomprehension, and fear. Norway has experienced terrorism from the Right, but terrorism from any source raises a new category of existential threat, and requires us to cope with fresh pre-meditated hatred. Not nice, as my Granny used to say.</font></p> <p> </p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-25908581683002582932016-10-24T14:41:00.001+01:002016-10-24T14:41:35.389+01:00Do universities add value?<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2rGwRE0wNSE/WA4PevasLJI/AAAAAAAACrA/zP5_T8Ms5Wo/s1600-h/UCLAutumn2%252520image%25255B1%25255D.jpg"><img title="UCLAutumn2 image" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="UCLAutumn2 image" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/--0Llqn50TCs/WA4Pgfp1vOI/AAAAAAAACrE/ngrlLNXg1Z0/UCLAutumn2%252520image_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="644" height="409"></a> </p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">If you have anything to do with a university, you are probably above such childish things as university rankings. Just to explain to my esteemed readers what other less refined people get up to: university rankings attempt to assess universities according to the quality of their research and, if desperate, by the quality of their teaching. Research is assessed by publications in quality journals (quality being assessed by impact factors, which is a separate issue) and research grants obtained, or number of Nobel Prizes, or similar shibboleths of scholarship. Teaching is assessed by student surveys and, to scrape the barrel, by mentioning the quality of the student experience: whether they have ever met a member of staff, had an essay marked or been taught anything; silly stuff like that.</font></p> <p><font size="2">All this is good fun, and to save you looking it up, University College London generally does well on international rankings. </font></p> <p><strong>QS World University Rankings 2016-17</strong> <ol> <li>Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) <li>Stanford University <li>Harvard University <li>University of Cambridge <li>California Institute of Technology (Caltech) <li>University of Oxford <li>University College London <li>ETH Zurich <li>Imperial College London <li>University of Chicago</li></ol> <p><font size="2">So what? The first three are in the US, which is very wealthy and can attract global talent and fund research. There is some first mover advantage, so Oxford and Cambridge do well, by attracting talent and legacies over 8 centuries. UCL and Imperial are in reasonably wealthy England. 9 of the top 10 were created by the English and their descendants. Not a bad legacy for one damp island.</font></p> <p><font size="2">However, whatever happened to Salamanca, Bologna, Padua, Naples, Siena, Valladolid, Macerata, Coimbra, and other first mover European centres of ancient learning, who should be well ahead of the pack? Well, they weren’t English, for a start. They fell by the wayside for the lack of something: Italy lost its early start, and the common factor for all of them may have been the lack of an industrial revolution, or perhaps a prevention of curiosity under Catholicism, or fundamental deep disorders in the Mediterranean European psyche: too much time on the beach, lack of proper governments, or even the lack of the civilizing impact of sharp winters and Protestant bloody-minded rejection of authority, which engender the required Northern cunning and dedication to truth as an absolute value. Something was missing among the continentals.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The OECD have entered the fray, by asking what is for them a seditious question: how do university rankings relate to student quality? The BBC has ventured to summarise their answer: Not all that much.</font></p> <p><a title="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37649892" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37649892"><font size="2">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37649892</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">Anyway, here is the BBC’s list of highest performing graduates, drawn from OECD data. Surreptitiously I have added another figure to the countries, which neither the OECD or the BBC mentioned.</font></p> <p><strong>The OECD's top 10 highest performing graduates</strong> <ol> <li>Japan 105 <li>Finland 97 <li>Netherlands 100 <li>Australia 100 <li>Norway 100 <li>Belgium 99 <li>New Zealand 100 <li>England 100 <li>United States 98 <li>Czech Republic 98</li></ol> <p><font size="2">Japan is out ahead, all the rest are Greenwich Mean Intelligence (100), with little variation. China is not on the list, but would rank close to Japan.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Student ability is a dangerous concept because the OECD does not mention intelligence. If you put “OECD” into the blog search bar you will get all the mentions I have made to their work, but here is a starter here below, with two others to give you a flavour of the way the OECD argues:</font></p> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/how-illiterate-is-oecd.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/how-illiterate-is-oecd.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/how-illiterate-is-oecd.html</font></a></p> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/oecd-children-become-oecd-adults.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/oecd-children-become-oecd-adults.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/oecd-children-become-oecd-adults.html</font></a></p> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/pisa-goes-to-us-finds-little-bang-for.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/pisa-goes-to-us-finds-little-bang-for.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/pisa-goes-to-us-finds-little-bang-for.html</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">The BBC article, though interesting, raises an easily formulated explanation: the best universities now reflect a blend of early starters and mostly the English who kept the flame of the Enlightenment alive.</font></p> <p><font size="2">One can have very bright students, but still live in a country where universities have yet to generate sufficient research to draw in students from other countries. Eventually the new universities will reflect the global hinterland of talent. On intelligence alone then the cities of China will lead the way, so long as they are curious, disputative, and not led by any political party or over-weaning government. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Meantime, do universities add value? </font><font size="2">The BBC references a gargantuan OECD publication “Education at a glance 2016” which should bludgeon the average reader into submission. Just reading the contents list will make your head spin. This is what a large budget can bring you. Be warned: they have an explicit agenda which they list on page 15, and although these are noble aims, they include eliminating gender disparities and inculcating sustainable development and cultural diversity. All countries get graded on their progress to the correct curricula. Designing a Maths course to gain their approval might be tricky, particularly if the highest achievers are always Asian men. Perhaps education would be better with less cultural diversity: just imitate the Chinese.</font></p> <p><font size="2">The Report complains: <em>More women than men are now tertiary graduates. But women are still less likely to enter and graduate from more advanced levels of tertiary education, such as doctoral or equivalent programmes. Women remain under-represented science and engineering, and over-represented in others, such as education and health. In 2014 there were, on average, three times more men than women who graduated with a degree in engineering and four times more women than men who graduated with a degree in the field of education. Graduates in engineering earn about 10% more than other tertiary-educated adults, on average, while graduates from teacher training and education science earn about 15% less. </em></font></p> <p><font size="2">Don’t dare to suggest that women may have different interests to men, and also different cognitive strengths and weaknesses. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Here are their summary comments on immigration:</font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>Immigrants are less likely to participate at all levels of education. I</em></font><font size="2"><em>mmigrant students who reported that they had attended pre-primary </em></font><font size="2"><em>education programmes score 49 points higher on the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment </em></font><font size="2"><em>(PISA) reading test than immigrant students who reported that they had not participated in such programmes. This </em></font><font size="2"><em>difference corresponds to roughly one year of education. In most countries, however, participation in pre-primary </em></font><font size="2"><em>programmes among immigrant students is considerably lower than it is among students without an immigrant </em></font><font size="2"><em>background. </em></font><font size="2"><em>In many countries immigrants lag behind their native-born peers in educational attainment. For example, the share </em></font><font size="2"><em>of adults who have not completed upper secondary education is larger among those with an immigrant background. </em></font></p> <p><font size="2">The clear implication is that immigrants should be encouraged to get educated, and then they will be as able as the locals to contribute to their country’s economies. However, if brighter immigrant parents make sure their children children start learning early, some of 49 points apparently gained may be due to selection.</font> <p><font size="2">After those preliminaries, now let us turn to the issue highlighted by the BBC article in which the OECD's top 10 highest performing graduates are listed. I think (but cannot be sure) that it is taken from the Table A1.2 shown below:</font> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-abxo1oo05xI/WA4PiCQ6EII/AAAAAAAACrI/MYiniQDZiBE/s1600-h/OECD%252520literacy%252520proficiency%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="OECD literacy proficiency" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="OECD literacy proficiency" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-v6yxSqujflY/WA4PjhKdkHI/AAAAAAAACrM/aT3ueAnea7U/OECD%252520literacy%252520proficiency_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="440"></a> <p><font size="2">For some reason the BBC list drops Sweden. To my eye the Premier League of top students as regards “literacy” are to be found in Japan, Finland, Netherlands, Sweden and Australia. Norway to Slovakia are in the First Division, Korea to Italy in the Second Division, and Chile, Turkey and Indonesia lead the vast Third World.</font></p> <p><font size="2">What does “literacy” mean in this context? It means comprehension and the ability to handle concepts, something requiring verbal intelligence, a taboo concept for the OECD.</font></p> <p><font size="2">At level 4 tasks <em>involve retrieving information which require the reader to locate and organize several pieces of embedded information. Some tasks at this level require interpreting the meaning of nuances of language in a section of text by taking into account the text as a whole. Other interpretative tasks require understanding and applying categories in an unfamiliar context. Reflective tasks at this level require readers to use formal or public knowledge to hypothesize about or critically evaluate a text. Readers must demonstrate an accurate understanding of long or complex texts whose content or form may be unfamiliar.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">To really answer the question as to whether universities add value, here are some research possibilities. First, one could compare the national literacy measures against the rankings for <em>all </em>the national universities. This would be rough and ready, but informative. Second, and far better, one would look at the broad range of adult skills, and adult earnings, for students of high ability according to whether or not they went to university.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Here is the way I summarised whether secondary schools add value to primary schools when I discussed it in December 2013 . The same method should be applied to evaluating whether universities add value.</font></p> <p><em><font size="2">So, we know that the education systems of many countries ten years ago were not turning out uniformly capable citizens, and to the extent that today’s student results are roughly in line with the previous decade’s results, they will not be turning out uniformly capable citizens now. This is because there is a bell curve of ability and because social and because educational systems vary in their effectiveness. Discriminating the relative contributions of these two factors is well nigh impossible unless you take measures of cognitive ability, preferably pre-school, but certainly early in life and including ability at 11 years of age, and then you test their attainments at age 15/16. Basically, if you know what children can do at the end of primary school you are in a good position to see what benefit they get from secondary education. Without those facts, interpretation of educational interventions will be prone to considerable error.</font></em></p> <p><font size="2">At the moment the snapshot of education in the OECD 2016 report does not answer the question, though it is worth investigating. Enough of this. Go back to marking essays.</font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-87999862972868664652016-10-17T13:51:00.001+01:002016-10-17T13:51:49.964+01:00Differences in sex differences: US trends and India<p> </p> <p><font size="2">Sex differences fascinate, but would be easier to understand if only they would stand still for a moment! Reported sex differences vary in magnitude, 3 to 1, or 4 to 1, or 7 to 1. </font></p> <p><font size="2">As usual, it depends on the representativeness of samples, the abilities being measured, and also how far out on the right hand side of the bell curve you go when you measure the man/woman ratio of high achievers. I</font><font size="2">n the early 1980s on the SAT-Math the sex ratio was approximately </font><font size="2">2 to 1 for scores ≥500 (top 0.5%) and roughly 13 to 1 for students scoring ≥700 (top 0.01%). </font></p> <p><font size="2">As Gigerenzer keeps pointing out, most people misunderstand the combination of decimal points and percentage signs. 0.5% means 1 in 200, or 5 in a thousand, or 50 in ten thousand. 0.01% is even more tricky: it is not a fifth but a fiftieth of 0.5%. It is 1 in 10,000. In sum, males are 2 to 1 at a level of ability reached by 50 out of 10,000 students, but at the very high levels achieved by 1 out of 10,000 students the male advantage is 13 to 1. At least, that was the picture in the 1980s. What are things like now?</font></p> <p><font size="2">Before that, here is some background:</font></p> <p><font size="2">Maths is a man thing. September 2013 <a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/maths-is-man-thing.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/maths-is-man-thing.html">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/maths-is-man-thing.html</a></font></p> <p><font size="2">Advice to men caught unawares. November 2014</font></p> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/advice-to-men-caught-unawares.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/advice-to-men-caught-unawares.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/advice-to-men-caught-unawares.html</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">The historical record is clear: eminent men predominate by at least 7 to 1 or, in Charles Murray’s “Human Accomplishment” 30 to 0 for the very top thinkers, people like Aristotle, Darwin, Galileo, Newton, Einstein (page 143) . </font><font size="2">Women have the perfect alibi of motherhood, and as Larkin noted, sexual liberation did not come till after the Beatles’ first LP.</font></p> <h1><font size="2"><em><font style="font-weight: normal">Sexual </font><font style="font-weight: normal">intercourse</font><font style="font-weight: normal"> began. </font></em></font></h1> <h1><font size="2"><font style="font-weight: normal"><em>In nineteen sixty-three </em></font></font></h1> <h1><font size="2"><font style="font-weight: normal"><em>(which was rather late for me) - </em></font></font></h1> <h1><font size="2"><font style="font-weight: normal"><em>Between the end of the "Chatterley" ban. </em></font></font></h1> <h1><font size="2"><em><font style="font-weight: normal">And the </font><font style="font-weight: normal">Beatles</font><font style="font-weight: normal">' </font><font style="font-weight: normal">first LP</font><font style="font-weight: normal">.</font></em></font></h1> <p><font size="2">In fact, some liberation began in 1870 with the Education Act, more in 1914 with the First World War, more after the contraceptive pill in the early 1960s and more and more thereafter. Although that is true about our own age</font><font size="2">, perhaps this story is wrong, a mere blip of epoch-centric bias, and denies the rights and the impact women had made centuries before. Thirty wills survive today from the late Anglo-Saxon period and ten of those are the wills of women, each of whom was a significant property owner , with the same rights of ownership and bequeathal as any man. Women were highly significant figures in Saxon history, and were admired for their power and nepotism, even if it involved the occasional murder. Interestingly, royal succession was not by primogeniture, but by classifying royal progeny as aethelings (throne-worthy) and from this gene pool the royal family would select the one who seemed best qualified for the job. Meritocracy within aristocracy. So, when pressure groups today want to force employers to appoint women to high offices, they should recall that, as a rule of thumb, in the year 1000 it was already the case that about a third of the richest Saxons were women.</font></p> <p><font size="2">However, given the clamour for equality in modern times, s</font><font size="2">urely the speed of women’s advance should be quickening?</font></p> <p><font size="2">The sex ratio in accomplishment depends on the skills being measured (harder subjects increase sex differences) and how accomplished you have to be to be judged accomplished (harder standards increase sex differences). So, if we go for Fields Medallists, the score is 55 to 1. </font><font size="2">Coming down slightly from those sorts of levels, how are young American men and women doing in Maths? </font></p> <p><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616302069#"><font color="#000000" size="2">Matthew C. Makel</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616302069#"><font color="#000000" size="2">Jonathan Wai</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616302069#"><font color="#000000" size="2">Kristen Peairs</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616302069#"><font color="#000000" size="2">Martha Putallaz</font></a>. <font style="font-weight: normal" size="2">Sex differences in the right tail of cognitive abilities: An update and cross cultural extension. </font><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01602896"><font color="#000000" size="2"><em>Intelligence</em></font></a><em> </em><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01602896/59/supp/C"><font color="#000000" size="2">Volume 59</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">, November–December 2016, Pages 8–15</font></p> <p><a title="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZZ3BoWHVmbGZKcGs/view?usp=sharing" href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZZ3BoWHVmbGZKcGs/view?usp=sharing"><font size="2">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZZ3BoWHVmbGZKcGs/view?usp=sharing</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">In the Abstract they say: <em>Male–female ability differences in the right tail (at or above the 95th percentile) have been widely discussed for their potential role in achievement and occupational differences in adults. The present study provides updated male–female ability ratios from 320,000 7th grade students in the United States in the right tail (top 5%) through the extreme right tail (top 0.01%) from 2011 to 2015 using measures of math, verbal, and science reasoning. Additionally, the present study establishes male-female ability ratios in a sample of over 7000 7th grade students in the right tail from 2011 to 2015 in India. Results indicate that ratios in the extreme right tail of math ability in the U.S. have shrunk in the last 20 years (still favoring males) and remained relatively stable in the verbal domain (still favoring females). Similar patterns of male-female ratios in the extreme right tail were found in the Indian sample.</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">They plot out the main US results in a dramatic graph.</font></p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-guSO2-6F88I/WATJWyGaRWI/AAAAAAAACqY/JgaFU0R_owQ/s1600-h/SAT%252520700%252520sex%252520ratios%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="SAT 700 sex ratios" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="SAT 700 sex ratios" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nDmD1me4vfU/WATJXiPxKmI/AAAAAAAACqc/b_SCtR0oX9A/SAT%252520700%252520sex%252520ratios_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="330"></a></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">The detailed results are in Table 1, so see what you think:</font></p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-6mgFJ7ZzyNM/WATJYIN5WmI/AAAAAAAACqg/-skRoszntfg/s1600-h/SAT%252520maths%252520table%252520sex%252520ratio%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="SAT maths table sex ratio" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="SAT maths table sex ratio" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-4_SGcsSeBxw/WATJZJZ9AvI/AAAAAAAACqk/58T3OTSmWLE/SAT%252520maths%252520table%252520sex%252520ratio_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="164"></a></p> <p><font size="2">Look like sometime between 1996 and 2000 a new score category of 800 was added. Why? 700+ was good enough before. That category shows the biggest male advantage compared to the 700+ column. Looks like either a) students got brighter or b) the test got easier.</font></p> <p><font size="2"><em>However, the EXPLORE-Math score did not show a decline. Whether earlier changes on some tests and the on-going stability in other tests can be explained by potential ceiling effects in the measure in this sample (see Wai et<br>al., 2012) or other reasons — (e.g., lack of time for any intervention, the effects of test makers purposefully “juking” tests to reduce demographic differences as suggested by Loewen et al., 1988) — is currently unknown</em></font></p> <p><font size="2">Well, this leaves a lot unknown. The drop in the sex ratio between 1980 and 1990 is <em>enormous</em>. Something must have happened. Crack teams must have fanned out across America, treating Maths anxiety among girls, and giving them special tuition. There must have been summer schools for the brightest girls. I have never seen such a speedy change in a scholastic indicator, and that includes the rise in language ability of first generation immigrants. It is not clear to me whether the authors believe in the change or not, which is a pity, because this is apparently one of the best findings showing that a cultural intervention can overcome an apparently deep-seated biological difference between the sexes. To give the authors their due, they mention that the tests may have been tampered with, so as to reduce sex differences, but they are the ones closest to the data, so I am sure they could tell us a little more. For example, given that this particular period is so extraordinary, why not plot out the results for each year? Big oscillations in the sex ratio during those years would be suggestive of cultural changes coming in, and taking time to spread through all schools. A sharp fall in a single year would suggest that the test had been revised in a major way. Which is it? What did the test makers say about sex differences over the years? Did they ever mention working on items to make sure they were not sex biased? </font></p> <p><font size="2">At the moment all I can think of is that US Maths tests prior to 1991 had the following statement in the instructions: ALL THE QUESTIONS IN THIS EXAM RELATE TO SPARK PLUGS.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Despite all this, as late a 2010 boys outshone girls at 7 to to 1 (actually 6.58 to 1, but I have rounded up for effect). On the ASSET test top score of 35 the ratio is 8 to 1.</font></p> <p><font size="2">It is minor gripe, but having got some great data from India, it was difficult to find it in their table. Please label the Indian results India. Saves time.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Have we yet another result which shows a biologically based male/female difference, which is also subject to strong cultural forces? I cannot be sure. I don’t know enough about the test content, and what questions may have been dropped because of presumed sex bias. I don’t know if the tests have become easier overall, but suspect it, since during recent years GCSEs in the UK became much easier in terms of the overall pass rate, and are now becoming slightly harder again. Test constructors are under pressure to make sure that their tests are fair, and the concept of fair mitigates against finding sex differences, as well as the more familiar race differences.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Despite my uncertainties, this is a good paper, on a very sizeable population of test takers in the US and in India. In my view the authors have not mined the Indian material very much. Surely in these disparate US and Indian tests there must be some very similar test items which would allow a proper comparison between US and India. The authors do some comparisons which assume US intelligence is identical to India, which null hypothesis I think can be discarded. Time for them to team up with Richard Lynn and see if they can do more work on the sex ratios in different Indian provinces, which are extremely heterogeneous in terms of general ability. Not sure what my prediction about sex ratios would be: the brighter the province the higher the sex ratios?</font></p> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/the-heterogeneous-states-of-india.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/the-heterogeneous-states-of-india.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/the-heterogeneous-states-of-india.html</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">Overall, an intriguing finding, strongly suggesting a change in the sex ratio for Maths, but with relevant points still unanswered. Some specific item analyses could be highly informative.</font></p> <p><font size="2">I have already hinted that I know of work which links intelligence to measured brain volumes of men and women, finding brain size to be a good predictor of sex differences, but that paper is only just now going before reviewers, so whereof one cannot speak one must remain silent.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Keep tuning in to Psychological Comments.</font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com25tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-78309913858453165842016-10-13T15:08:00.001+01:002016-10-13T15:08:25.785+01:00Has Europe been enriched by contemporary immigration?<p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">In a wish to show I am capable of building up dramatic tension, here is one slide from a talk by Prof Heiner Rindermann which shows the correlations between cognitive ability, institutions and the wealth of nations, arranged in a Structural Equation Model. The loadings have been removed just to make the picture clearer, but the fuller version can be found in the conference slides. This is the trailer, to be gazed at while eating popcorn and waiting for the main feature.</font></p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-G9TFfoPWDBc/V_-VU0snd3I/AAAAAAAACp0/lDmTKztClIg/s1600-h/Cognitive%252520ability%252520and%252520wealth%252520of%252520nations%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Cognitive ability and wealth of nations" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Cognitive ability and wealth of nations" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-pQ4xOSPPOL4/V_-VWLxpBqI/AAAAAAAACp4/Q60OIEOeTvE/Cognitive%252520ability%252520and%252520wealth%252520of%252520nations_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="439"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">The main feature is in two formats, so split screen would probably be the best way to see things.</font></p> <p><font size="2">First, here is the link to the whole conference slide show “</font><font size="2">Has Europe been enriched by contemporary immigration?”</font></p> <p><a title="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZMU1Zd3ZfUThQZEU/view?usp=sharing" href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZMU1Zd3ZfUThQZEU/view?usp=sharing"><font size="2">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZMU1Zd3ZfUThQZEU/view?usp=sharing</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">(Check out the SEM on page 12, to see whether you prefer the simplified version or the original)</font></p> <p><font size="2">Here is the link to the talk itself:</font></p> <p><a href="http://propertyandfreedom.org/2016/10/heiner-rindermann-cognitive-and-cultural-entertainment-of-europe-by-immigration-pfs-2016/"><font size="2">http://propertyandfreedom.org/2016/10/heiner-rindermann-cognitive-and-cultural-entertainment-of-europe-by-immigration-pfs-2016/</font></a></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-31501705364417714372016-10-12T15:27:00.001+01:002016-10-12T15:27:33.875+01:00More markers, more differentiation, and people know what race they are anyway<p> </p> <p><font size="2">Cultural lag is the polite term for habits and hypotheses that never die. They become immune to refutation by virtue of constant repetition. One such meme, due to Lewontin (1972), asserts that there is more genetic variation within genetic groups than between them, and therefore that…… er, ….there is no difference between the groups/there is no <em>genetic</em> difference between genetic groups/any differences between groups cannot be due to genetic reasons/asserting that genetic group differences are discriminable by genetics would be arbitrary and wrong/genetic groups do not exist.</font> <p><font size="2">I had never been convinced by these arguments, on the simple basis that genetic groups are clearly visible, and sustain themselves by genetic means, and are usually halved by admixture. Also, it was only a vague thought, but it seemed to me that a t test could still be significant with relatively small mean differences if the sample size was high enough. Probably not relevant in genetics, I mused.</font></p> <p><font size="2">In fact, the ease with which you can separate two genetic groups depends, like all discriminations and all clustering, on the number of markers available for the discrimination and clustering techniques being used. With only a few markers, discrimination is difficult, and error prone. As you increase the number, allocation to different groups becomes progressively easier.</font></p> <p><font size="2">So, to counter the endless echo of the original hypothesis, I am trying to put together a list of papers which explain and test the issue.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Tim Bates explains that Lewontin based his claims on blood type markers: about as advanced as it was possible to be in 1972, but hopeless to identify genetic clustering, therefore doomed to render a false negative. </font><font size="2">The 2005 paper by Neil Risch (now cited 400 times) shows how inadequate that procedure was by showing one can now predict race near perfectly with random sets of SNPs.</font></p> <p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Tang%20H%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Hua Tang</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Quertermous%20T%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Tom Quertermous</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Rodriguez%20B%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Beatriz Rodriguez</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Kardia%20SL%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Sharon L. R. Kardia</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Zhu%20X%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Xiaofeng Zhu</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Brown%20A%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Andrew Brown</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Pankow%20JS%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">James S. Pankow</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Province%20MA%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Michael A. Province</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Hunt%20SC%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Steven C. Hunt</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Boerwinkle%20E%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Eric Boerwinkle</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup></font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Schork%20NJ%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Nicholas J. Schork</font></a><font color="#000000" size="2">,<sup> </sup>and </font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Risch%20NJ%5BAuthor%5D&cauthor=true&cauthor_uid=15625622"><font color="#000000" size="2">Neil J. Risch</font></a>. (2005) <font style="font-weight: normal" size="2">Genetic Structure, Self-Identified Race/Ethnicity, and Confounding in Case-Control Association Studies. </font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#">Am J Hum Genet</a>. 2005 Feb; 76(2): 268–275.</p> <p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/"><font size="2"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/</font></a><em><font size="2"></font></em></a> <p><font size="2">The authors say in their abstract: </font> <p><font size="2"><em>We have analyzed genetic data for 326 microsatellite markers that were typed uniformly in a large multi-ethnic population-based sample of individuals as part of a study of the genetics of hypertension (Family Blood Pressure Program). Subjects identified themselves as belonging to one of four major racial/ethnic groups (white, African American, East Asian, and Hispanic) and were recruited from 15 different geographic locales within the United States and Taiwan. Genetic cluster analysis of the microsatellite markers produced four major clusters, which showed near-perfect correspondence with the four self-reported race/ethnicity categories. Of 3,636 subjects of varying race/ethnicity, only 5 (0.14%) showed genetic cluster membership different from their self-identified race/ethnicity. On the other hand, we detected only modest genetic differentiation between different current geographic locales within each race/ethnicity group. Thus, ancient geographic ancestry, which is highly correlated with self-identified race/ethnicity—as opposed to current residence—is the major determinant of genetic structure in the U.S. population. Implications of this genetic structure for case-control association studies are discussed.</em></font> <p><font size="2"></font> <p><font size="2">In their discussion they say:</font> <p><font size="2"><em>Attention has recently focused on genetic structure in the human population. Some have argued that the amount of genetic variation within populations dwarfs the variation between populations, suggesting that discrete genetic categories are not useful (Lewontin <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF10">1972</a></sup>; Cooper et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF5">2003</a></sup>; Haga and Venter <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF7">2003</a></sup>). On the other hand, several studies have shown that individuals tend to cluster genetically with others of the same ancestral geographic origins (Mountain and Cavalli-Sforza <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF12">1997</a></sup>; Stephens et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF19">2001</a></sup>; Bamshad et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF1">2003</a></sup>). Prior studies have generally been performed on a relatively small number of individuals and/or markers. A recent study (Rosenberg et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF18">2002</a></sup>) examined 377 autosomal microsatellite markers in 1,056 individuals from a global sample of 52 populations and found significant evidence of genetic clustering, largely along geographic (continental) lines. Consistent with prior studies, the major genetic clusters consisted of Europeans/West Asians (whites), sub-Saharan Africans, East Asians, Pacific Islanders, and Native Americans. It is clear that the ability to define distinct genetic clusters depends on the number and type of markers used (Risch et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF16">2002</a></sup>). Reports that document inability to define distinct clusters generally used only a modest number of markers and, hence, had little power to detect clusters (Romualdi et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF17">2002</a></sup>). Studies with larger numbers of markers appear to show strong evidence of clustering (Stephens et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF19">2001</a></sup>; Rosenberg et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF18">2002</a></sup>).</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Another major point of discussion has been the correspondence between genetic clusters and commonly used racial/ethnic labels. Some have argued for poor correspondence between these two entities (Lewontin<sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF10">1972</a></sup>; Wilson et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF22">2001</a></sup>), whereas others have suggested a strong correlation (Risch et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF16">2002</a></sup>; Burchard et al. <sup><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1196372/#RF3">2003</a></sup>). We have shown a nearly perfect correspondence between genetic cluster and SIRE for major ethnic groups living in the United States, with a discrepancy rate of only 0.14%.</em></font> <p><font size="2">In sum, you get a near perfect correspondence between genetic measures and the common racial labels, with a misclassification rate of a mere 14 per 10,000. Some of this is due to the admixed “other” category, and perhaps some existential confusion in the others, but 9,986 in 10,000 subjects can master the art of looking in a mirror and noting which race they most resemble, a task beyond the wit of some academics.</font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-15689311394106718132016-10-11T14:47:00.001+01:002016-10-11T14:47:23.113+01:00Scientist stabbed to death by mentally ill illegal immigrant<p> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yGm97ywOSVc/V_ztV8N6MAI/AAAAAAAACpM/Gcq2pp32ADU/s1600-h/Murderer%252520and%252520victim%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Murderer and victim" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Murderer and victim" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-fVnQPK0qvdM/V_ztX5B_cQI/AAAAAAAACpQ/X4W_GqTuZCM/Murderer%252520and%252520victim_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="443"></a></p> <p><font size="2">That is the striking headline in The Telegraph, with all the makings of a modern horror story.</font></p> <p><a title="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/widow-of-scientist-stabbed-to-death-by-mentally-ill-illegal-immi/" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/widow-of-scientist-stabbed-to-death-by-mentally-ill-illegal-immi/"><font size="2">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/10/widow-of-scientist-stabbed-to-death-by-mentally-ill-illegal-immi/</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">The Daily Mail likewise:</font></p> <p><a title="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3830357/Widow-Islington-stab-victim-Dr-Jeroen-Ensink-speak-sentencing-Femi-Nandap.html" href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3830357/Widow-Islington-stab-victim-Dr-Jeroen-Ensink-speak-sentencing-Femi-Nandap.html"><font size="2">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3830357/Widow-Islington-stab-victim-Dr-Jeroen-Ensink-speak-sentencing-Femi-Nandap.html</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">The Guardian is more circumspect, but equally informative</font></p> <p><a title="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/10/jeroen-ensink-my-life-stopped-widow-of-academic-killed-outside-his-london-home-speaks-of-loss" href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/10/jeroen-ensink-my-life-stopped-widow-of-academic-killed-outside-his-london-home-speaks-of-loss"><font size="2">https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/10/jeroen-ensink-my-life-stopped-widow-of-academic-killed-outside-his-london-home-speaks-of-loss</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">Only a few weeks ago I was discussing the detection of violence in schizophrenic patients, and questioning the basis for saying that it was virtually impossible to do anything about it.</font></p> <p><a title="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/detecting-schizophrenia-myths.html" href="https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/detecting-schizophrenia-myths.html"><font size="2">https://drjamesthompson.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/detecting-schizophrenia-myths.html</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">Although the poor widow of the murdered man has made her witness statement, it will have zero impact on sentencing, and it is unlikely to have any influence on the current academic wisdom, which is that it is impossible to prevent such murders without restricting large numbers of patients, say 35,000 of them.</font></p> <p><font size="2">As you will see in the above post, I have my doubts about this claim. The facts of this horrible murder are not in dispute: the man was known to be psychotic, to have stopped medication, to be carrying knives, and to have threatened a policeman. He was also a heavy cannabis user. What more does a person have to do to be rated as a risk to others?</font></p> <p><font size="2">In my post you will see that I had some difficulty understanding the “stranger murder” calculations, but all is much clearer if, instead of preventing a stranger murder, we try to prevent an assault. This is worth doing, because to be assaulted is a profoundly distressing event, and if injuries are caused, also a potentially life changing one.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Taking the very paper which provides the “35,000” figure for stranger murder, the figures for assault are shown below, and put things into a more manageable context. The annual rates for assault and violent crime are extraordinarily high, almost unbelievably so. Given the very high base rate, screening and monitoring are worth while. </font></p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-_F7JEwvasxY/V_ztZAR8gOI/AAAAAAAACpU/z4-GsvuNw44/s1600-h/Positive%252520predictive%252520value%252520in%252520schizophrenia%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Positive predictive value in schizophrenia" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Positive predictive value in schizophrenia" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yTH-VLw5IbA/V_ztarlotwI/AAAAAAAACpY/9o7UwXdPN-U/Positive%252520predictive%252520value%252520in%252520schizophrenia_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="439" height="484"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2">As the event becomes more rare, the positive predictive value of the risk-categorization becomes lower, and the error rate higher, with progressively more people needing to be monitored to prevent one rare event. However, to prevent</font><font size="2"> an assault would require that 3 schizophrenic patients be monitored, calling them in to check they are taking their medication, and presumably (hardest part) searching for them if they failed to show up. Easier would be to link up with the Police, so that if a patient is brought in for violent behaviour of any sort there can be coordinated management of the offender. Devoutly to be wished, often denied, but in the manageable range given the will and the resources. It would provide a good service for the patients, reducing suicide attempts, improving the quality of their lives, and reducing threats to others. It would certainly be worth testing it out in a London Borough, and checking that the above figures, derived from the best sources, hold up on further examination.</font></p> <p><font size="2">None of the media coverage goes into the question which arises out of normal curiosity: is psychotic behaviour more common among Africans in the UK? The picture above shows murderer and victim, and is an all too common pairing. The answer to the African question is: 6 to 9 times higher.</font></p> <p><font size="2">Morgan et al. (2006) First episode psychosis and ethnicity: initial findings from the AESOP study. </font><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1472260/#"><font size="2">World Psychiatry</font></a><font size="2">. 2006 Feb; 5(1): 40–46.</font></p> <p><a title="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1472260/" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1472260/"><font size="2">https://</font></a><a title="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1472260/" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1472260/"><font size="2">www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1472260/</font></a></p> <p><em><font size="2">We found the incidence of all psychoses to be significantly higher in African-Caribbean and Black African populations across all three centres compared with the baseline White British population [African-Caribbeans: IRR 6.7 (5.4-8.3); Black Africans: IRR 4.1 (3.2-5.3)]. These differences were most marked for narrowly defined schizophrenia (F20) and manic psychosis (F30-31). For example, after adjusting for age, the incidence of schizophrenia across the three study centres was nine times higher in the African- Caribbean population [IRR 9.1 (6.6-12.6)] and six times higher in the Black African population [IRR 5.8 (3.9-8.4)]. The incidence rates for schizophrenia in the African- Caribbean and Black African populations (71 per 100,000 person years, and 40 per 100,000 person years, respectively) are among the highest ever reported. A strikingly similar pattern was evident for manic psychosis (F30-31). After adjusting for age, the incidence of manic psychosis was eight times higher for African-Caribbeans [IRR 8.0 (4.3- 14.8)] and six times higher for Black Africans [IRR 6.2 (3.1- 12.1)] compared with the White British baseline group. The rates of depressive psychosis were also raised, but more modestly [African-Caribbeans: IRR 3.1 (1.5-3.6); Black Africans: IRR 2.1 (0.9-5.0)]. Intriguingly, the incidence rates for all psychoses were also raised for all other ethnic groups (other White, Asian, mixed, other) compared with the White British populations, albeit much more modestly (IRRs for all psychoses ranged from 1.5 to 2.7).</font></em></p> <p><font size="2">If screening and or monitoring was done on a rational basis, those of African descent would be given particular attention, because detection is easiest where the baseline rate is high. There is 10 year follow-up work, showing generally poor prognosis, but with some achievements. </font></p> <p><a title="http://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/pdf/calcgap2013julialappin.pdf" href="http://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/pdf/calcgap2013julialappin.pdf"><font size="2">http://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/pdf/calcgap2013julialappin.pdf</font></a></p> <p><font size="2">So, screen Africans who are psychotic or manic, particularly those on cannabis or other drugs, unemployed, not compliant with treatment, and showing any threatening behaviours, and get them treated as quickly as possible. </font></p> <p><font size="2">As a historical note, and at the risk of confusing things by raising an idea since disproved, or at least called into question, it was argued in the 90s that the incidence of schizophrenia was the same the world over, but that has since been shown not to be the case, or at least subject to exceptions. Looking at the references in the above paper by Morgan et al. 2006 I don’t consider it a real refutation, but it would be good to repeat the WHO study again more extensively. However, in a case of cultural lag, since I knew the team at WHO who did the work, it lurks in me as a given and true fact, whatever the current concerns about it. </font></p> <p><font size="2">These studies in countries of origin are important. If the rates of serious mental illness are low, then a case can be made for the stress of migration, and stresses of living in Western society (a common interpretation) as being the causes of the disturbance. It still needs to be explained why other migrants are far less prone than Africans. That aside, I think we need better studies in the countries of origin before being sure about causation.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"> </p></font>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-88774986775666904762016-10-09T16:14:00.001+01:002016-10-09T16:14:35.825+01:00Artificial general intelligence: A Von Neumann machine<p> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xPT4jD_9nRg/V_pe0iurjvI/AAAAAAAACos/0ZtL-1Uzrpc/s1600-h/Alpha%252520Go%252520team%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Alpha Go team" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Alpha Go team" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-G6rVoq4jmhU/V_pe2vJC12I/AAAAAAAACow/n3hKL8Q43Dk/Alpha%252520Go%252520team_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="257"></a></p> <p> <p><font size="2"><em>Intelligence is the ability to perform well across a wide range of tasks. </em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Intuition is inexpressible implicit knowledge.</em></font> <p><font size="2"><em>Creativity is synthesizing knowledge to produce novel ideas.</em></font> <p><font size="2">One day my daughter came back from school, very excited. Nothing particular in that: she enjoyed education. But this time it was more than a class discussion, a maths competition won, or the delights of Java programming. She had listened to a talk by an outside speaker and was inspired. So, the speaker became some-one we lived with, in the ethereal but instructive sense of hearing her discuss the ideas he had engendered. She managed to get a week with him and his game company as part of work experience later in her education, and we all followed his illustrious career with a sense of identification. Moral for researchers: give at least one talk at a school.</font> <p><font size="2">Yesterday, thanks to a recommendation from Dominic Cummings, I listened to the same guy and have come away inspired, despite the contact being through a YouTube recording of an MIT lecture, and not face to face in a small classroom.</font> <p><font size="2">In the taped lecture below he discusses how his general intelligence system beat the world champion Go player. That is astounding in itself, but to me the most interesting aspect of his talk is his enthralling enquiry into the nature of thinking and problem solving. Has he found a technique with very powerful and wide application that will change the way we solve difficult problems?</font> <p><font size="2">His company employs 200 researchers, and attempts to fuse Silicon Valley with academia: the blue sky thinking of the ivory tower with the focus and energy of a start-up. With commendable enthusiasm and naïve impudence (doesn’t he know that many clever academics find these issues complicated, have studied them, and left them even more complicated?) he frames the problem thus:</font> <p><font size="2">Step 1 fundamentally solve intelligence.</font> <p><font size="2">Step 2 use it to solve everything else.</font> <p><font size="2">Who does he think he is? OK, a master chess player at 13, flourishing game company boss that developed Theme Park and Republic, double First in Computing at Cambridge, then PhD in cognitive neuroscience at UCL, lots of excellent publications, and all this without listening to wise advice that he was setting his sights too high.</font> <p><font size="2">He says: <em>Artificial Intelligence is the most powerful technology we will ever invent. </em></font> <p><font size="2">What follows is my considerable simplification of his talk, from which the aphorisms at the very start are also my compressed renditions of his remarks and working principles. </font> <p><font size="2">More prosaically, the technology he has developed is based on general purpose learning algorithms which can learn automatically for themselves from raw inputs, and are not pre-programmed; and can operate across a broad range of tasks. Operationally, intelligence is the ability to perform well across a broad range of tasks. This artificial general intelligence is flexible, adaptive and inventive. It is built from the ground up to deal with the unexpected: things it has never seen before. Old style artificial intelligence was narrow: hand-crafted, specialist, single purpose, brittle. Deep Blue beat Kasparov, but could not play simpler games like tick-tack-toe. </font> <p><font size="2">Artificial general intelligence is based on a reinforcement learning framework, in which an agent operates in an environment and tries to achieve a goal: it can observe reality and obtain rewards. With only noisy, incomplete observations it must build a statistical model of the environment, and then decide what actions to take from the options available at any particular moment to achieve its goal. A machine that can really think has to be grounded in a rich sensorimotor reality. There should be no cheating, no getting to see the internal game code. (Cheating leaves the system superficial and dull). The thinking machine interacts with the world through its perception. Games are a good platform for developing and testing AI algorithms. There is unlimited training data, no testing bias (one side wins, the other loses), opportunities to carry out parallel testing, and measure progress accurately. End to end learning agents go from the very simplest sensory inputs to concrete actions. </font> <p><font size="2">Deep reinforcement learning is the extension of reinforcement learning (<em>conditioning</em>, it used to be called: making actions conditional upon outcomes) so that it works at scale. Deep Mind started its learning journey with Atari games from the 1980s. (How Douglas Adams would have loved this! It reminds me of showing him around the technology museum at Karlsruhe, and as I walked past what I assumed he would see as boring Atari kids games, he burbled with pleasure, and named every one of them and their characteristics. I digress.) The learning agents received nothing but the raw pixels (about 30,000 pixels per frame in the game), tried to learn how to maximise their scores, learnt everything from scratch, and developed ONE system to play ALL the different games. Hence, the systems were learning about the games at a very deep level. (Nature, Learning Curve, 2015 Mnih et al). </font> <p><font size="2">In a nod to neuroscience, systems can be considered to have a neurology at a very high computational level: algorithms, representations and architectures. Deep-reinforcement-trained machines can now cope with two-dimensional symbolic reasoning, similar to Tower of Hanoi problems, in which a start state is given and the device must follow the rules, but get to a specified Goal state. This is like (example comes from friends at lunch yesterday) trying to change round the furniture in their house and realising, late in the process, that the correct solution depended entirely on moving the small desk on the top landing.</font> <p><font size="2">“Go” is the perfect game to test the deep learning machine, previously trained up on the starter problem of all the Atari games. Go has 10 to the power 170 positions, 19 by 19 “squares” (interstices) and only two rules: stones are captured when they have no liberties (are surrounded and have no free vertices to move to); and a repeated board position is not allowed. It is the most complex, profound game, requires intuition and calculation, and pattern recognition plus long term planning: the pinnacle of information games. Brute force approaches don’t work, because the search space is really huge (branching factor of 200, compared to 20 in chess) and it is extremely hard to determine who is winning. A tiny change can transform the balance of power, a so called “divine” move can win the game, and change the history of the game. (See the pesky small desk at the top of the stairs).</font> <p><font size="2">To deep-learn the game of Go, the team downloaded 100,000 amateur games and trained a supervised learning “policy” network to predict and play the move the human player played. After a lot of work they got to 60% accuracy as to what a human would have done. They then made the system play itself millions of times, and rewarded it for wins, which made it slowly re-evaluate the value of each move. This got the win rate up to 80%. Then the system played itself another 30 million times. That meant for every position they knew the probability of winning the game, which gave them an evaluation function, previously thought an impossible achievement. They called this the value network, which allowed a calculation of who was winning, and by how much. </font> <p><font size="2">The Policy Network provides the input in terms of the probability of moves arising from a position, and the Value Network provides the game-winning value of a move. All this is great, but you still need a planning function. They used a Monte Carlo tree search, and instead of having to churn through 200 possibilities, they looked at the 2 or 3 moves most played by the amateurs. I have simplified this, but it made the search task manageable: a great breakthrough. Thus trained and maximized, AlphaGo could beat 494 out of 495 computer opponents. It then beat Fan Hui, a professional player 5-0. (Silver et al. Nature 2016)</font> <p><font size="2">Very interestingly, getting more computer power does not help AlphaGo all that much. Between the first match against the professional European Champion Fan Hui and then the test match against World Champion Lee Sedol, AlphaGo improved to a 99% win rate against the 6 month earlier version. Against the world champion Lee Sedol, AlphaGo played a divine move: a move with a human probability of only 1 in 1000, but a value move revealed 50 moves later to have been key to influencing power and territory in the centre of the board. (The team do not yet have techniques to show exactly why it made that move). Originally seen by commentators as a fat finger miss-click, it was the first indication of real creativity. Not a boring machine.</font> <p><font size="2">The creative capabilities of the deep knowledge system is only one aspect of this incredible achievement. More impressive is the rate at which it learnt the game, going up the playing hierarchy from nothing, 1 rank a month, to world champion in 18 months, and is nowhere near asymptote yet. It does not require the computer power to compute 200 million positions a second that IBMs Deep Blue required to beat Kasparov. Talk about a mechanical Turk! AlphaGo needed to look at only 100,000 positions a second for a game that was one order of magnitude more complicated than chess. It becomes more human, comparatively, the more you find out about it, yet what it does now is not rigid and handcrafted, but flexible, creative, deep and real.</font> <p><font size="2">Further, it is doing things which the creators cannot explain in detail. So intent were they in building a winner, they did not give it the capacity to give a running commentary. Now, post-win, they are going to build visualizers to show what is going on inside the Von Neumann mind. What will the system say? “Same stupid problem as Thursday?” “Don’t interrupt me while I am thinking?” Or just, every time: “comparing Policy with Network, considering the 3 most common moves, watching the clock and sometimes, just sometimes, finding a shortcut”. </font> <p><font size="2">What about us poor humans, of the squishy sort? Fan Hui found his defeat liberating, and it lifted his game. He has risen from 600<sup>th</sup> position to 300<sup>th</sup> position as a consequence of thinking about Go in a different way. Lee Sedol, at the very top of the mountain till he met AlphaGo, rated it the best experience of his life. The one game he won was based on a divine move of his own, another “less than 1 in 1000” moves. He will help overturn convention, and take the game to new heights. </font> <p><font size="2">All the commentary on the Singularity is that when machines become brighter than us they will take over, reducing us to irrelevant stupidity. I doubt it. They will drive us to new heights.</font> <p><font size="2">On that note, the program was created by humans, as shown in the picture at the top of the post. The AlphaGo team, who in my mind must rank high in the annals of creative enterprise, are a snapshot of bright people on whom the rest of us rely for real innovation. </font><font size="2"></font> <p><font size="2">All those years ago, my daughter was right to think that Demis Hassabis showed promise. </font> <p><font size="2">Promise me you will give at least <em>one</em> talk at a school. </font> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQXAsdMa_8A"><font size="2">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQXAsdMa_8A</font></a> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-86307035175595626392016-10-05T14:55:00.001+01:002016-10-05T14:55:52.843+01:00Richard Lynn Intelligence database: Becker edition<p> </p> <p><font size="2">Whereas there are many very well funded projects which study national and international scholastic ability without mentioning intelligence, there is one database for the national intelligence of the countries of the world, and that was put together by one person, unfunded, working in his study. Prof Richard Lynn gathered together the very disparate studies which mention the nationality of test takers, and assembled them into one database.</font></p> <p><font size="2">David Becker, who works with Prof Heiner Rindermann at the Technical University of Chemnitz, Germany, has taken on the task of going through all the results and tracking down the references, an enormous labour. We want a copy of each reference, so that everything can be checked. David is a research student studying for his Masters and has been concentrating on cross-national differences in ability, their consequences, and their possible origins in early human migration. Unusually for our effete profession, he had an honest trade before he entered Psychology. He is a fully trained butcher (three years of training) and worked in that profession for two years, so has skills which will stand him in good stead in research, as he cleaves fatty residues away from good meat. </font></p> <p><font size="2">Here are two references to introduce you to his work:</font></p> <p><font size="2">Becker, D., & Rindermann, H. (2016). The relationship between cross-national genetic distances and IQ-differences. Personality and Individual Differences, 98, 300-310.</font> <p><font size="2">Rindermann, H., Becker, D., & Coyle, Th. R. (2016). Survey of expert opinion on intelligence: Causes of international differences in cognitive ability tests. Frontiers in Psychology, 7, 399.</font> <p><font size="2">The database gives the Country, the age of the testees, the N, the test, the IQ, the short and the full reference, and then a column indicating whether we have an copy of the reference (Y or N). Occasionally there are question marks where a reference has not been traced.</font> <p><font size="2">This is where you come in. Have a look at the list, and if you have a copy of the papers, send David Becker a scan of them.</font> <p><font size="2">Also, if you have extra papers which have not been included (we know that some of you have been extending the database considerably) please get in touch so that we can put everything, duly acknowledged, into one document. Here is how you email David Becker. Write his name in lowercase, first and second name separated by a dot, then put in the eponymous at symbol, followed by “s2009.tu-chemnitz.de”</font> <p><font size="2">Now for the download. Use the following link, and you have the world at your fingertips. Every time you listen to the news, your can look up the IQ results for the relevant country, and draw your own conclusions.</font> <p><a title="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZNUVaZ0VhZ3dUMkk/view?usp=sharing" href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZNUVaZ0VhZ3dUMkk/view?usp=sharing"><font size="2">https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3c4TxciNeJZNUVaZ0VhZ3dUMkk/view?usp=sharing</font></a> <p> <p><font size="2"></font>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4624586630299165335.post-8509515664338984062016-10-04T15:24:00.001+01:002016-10-04T15:24:41.793+01:00A quick education in Edinburgh<p> </p> <p><font size="2">One flight to Edinburgh and I could get an education:</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-oAWaHtVDxIg/V_O7iUdda0I/AAAAAAAACnw/CgCCX7U5x-g/s1600-h/R%252520programming%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="R programming" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="R programming" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-u3r5PoaDP_c/V_O7jKIIWVI/AAAAAAAACn0/-Q9kipA69DA/R%252520programming_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="176"></a></p> <p> </p> <p><font size="2">R programming: so I could crunch data again without SPSS. It might drive me mad, but I am told that thereafter all is serene and pure, like Chapman’s Homer.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-buDAUSj5ChA/V_O7kdhwRrI/AAAAAAAACn4/QKimZJhJ6hw/s1600-h/Cognitive%252520genetics%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Cognitive genetics" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Cognitive genetics" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-7z0Uo-XIf8s/V_O7mFSPGDI/AAAAAAAACn8/vmWj6etWH58/Cognitive%252520genetics_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="115"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2">Cognitive Genetics: so I could read results with more insight, and spot any errors or interesting connections as the genetic story unfolds.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font> </p> <p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-fnlHhHT_mbs/V_O7nDi_ULI/AAAAAAAACoA/A3FagfKsJFY/s1600-h/Metanalysis%25255B6%25255D.png"><img title="Metanalysis" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Metanalysis" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-04kDGMehn8M/V_O7nzctvtI/AAAAAAAACoE/nurTWUVRTyM/Metanalysis_thumb%25255B2%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="209"></a></p> <p><font size="2">Systematic reviews and meta-analysis: to check that these things are being done properly. On that general topic, I have already muttered a few suggestions about inclusion criteria in previous posts, suggesting they should be graded for two levels of methodological purity.</font></p> <p><font size="2"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-WL9w0hvpU3c/V_O7pd3WjjI/AAAAAAAACoI/ShTfBNhMdy8/s1600-h/Cognitive%252520testing%252520and%252520details%25255B3%25255D.png"><img title="Cognitive testing and details" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px" border="0" alt="Cognitive testing and details" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-KnubC3VYAoo/V_O7qQ41cLI/AAAAAAAACoM/sbZRGzlEQWY/Cognitive%252520testing%252520and%252520details_thumb%25255B1%25255D.png?imgmax=800" width="644" height="314"></a></font></p> <p><font size="2">Cognitive testing: because, although I imagine I know about this, this will be the most recent stuff, and targeted at ageing research. Cognitive testing is advancing, particularly in internet driven research, and some assessments are now very fast and efficient.</font></p> <p><font size="2">After that, I could talk about almost everything of interest in psychometrics. </font><font size="2">The further particulars about applying are as shown above.</font></p> <p><font size="2">If I don’t make it, perhaps you would like to go along and then let me see your notes, sending them to me as a Christmas present. If I manage to get there, please sit with me at the back and explain things as they go along.</font></p> <p><font size="2"></font></p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09320614837348759094noreply@blogger.com0