Monday, 23 November 2015

Third Blog Birthday




As is traditional on this blog, the cake shows only one candle, the ironic rite of passage preferred by patrons of a local restaurant who note birthdays with minimal fuss. Orbit completed, precise ages not seemly to disclose.

Having already described, in a previous post, why I blog, this anniversary is about you, the reader. 

Here are the places where readers live:

Top Ten countries

United States              317,722

United Kingdom          63,992

Germany                      27,603

Ukraine                         18,792

France                           18,731

Canada                          17,130

Russia                            13,954

Australia                        13,775

Finland                           4,310

Spain                               2,912


Top Ten Posts

Are girls too normal? Sex differences in intelligence 8 Sep 2013, 24 comments 8284

Gone with the Wind 20 May 2015, 38 comments                                                6109

The 7 tribes of intellect 2 Dec 2013, 59 comments                                                4762

Income, brain, race, and a big gap 31 Mar 2015, 32 comments                          4550

Give me a child until he is seven, 20 May 2013, 6 comments                             4317

Do women find bright men sexy? 18 Sep 2015, 27 comments                             4137

Flynn effect as a retesting, rule-based gain 2 Nov 2013, 14 comments               3481

Chanda Chisala: An African Hereditarian? 7 Jul 2015, 19 comments                3479

“It’s the people, stupid”: review of Wade 14 May 2014, 30 comments               2970

Intelligence in 2000 words 9 Dec 2013, 14 comments                                        2963


The most read post “Are girls too normal” is about sex differences in the variance of intelligence, a matter which was well known in the 1960s but which is news today, probably due to poor psychology teaching. My sole contribution was to depict the differences in a simpler way.

Hot on its heels is the more recent “Gone with the Wind”, which is a case of a snappy title bringing attention to the soberly entitled “Meta-analysis of the heritability of human traits based on fifty years of twin studies”, though that paper was already being widely read from conventional sources.

“The 7 tribes of intellect” keeps going strong.

“Income, brain, race and a big gap” is in fourth place, and is notable for going on to generate a good debate with the author of the paper I was criticising, leading many new readers to go back to have a look at it, before going on to read the author’s reply and my rejoinder. The sudden spike in interest, leading to 4,729 readers in one day was due to a mention by Steven Pinker, for which many thanks. All authors are invited to reply to posts, and it is great when they do so.

Referring URLs  and sites


Google                      15,200

Unz + iSteve              3,950

HBD Chick                 2,808

Marginal Revolution 1,350


Twitter                       42,647

Google                       34,566

Unz                              6,722         

Reddit                          4,897

HBD Chick                  3,602

iSteve                           2,557

feedly                           2,254

facebook                      2,232


As you would expect on this blog, here is a cautionary note about metrics. I have used “pageviews” throughout, as the common currency of blogs. I am aware that some of those page views are very brief: a new reader sees some numbers and a graph on the page and quickly decides to read something else. Average time on a page is 4 minutes. Remember, this is much better data than we have for bookshelves. Right now I can look at some books on my shelves and note that I have read only a few pages, and some almost none.

My readers, or unique page viewers, are 50% new visitors 50% returning visitors. Mostly men, there is a peak for young adults.



Their interests are news and politics and education. What I would like to know is how many of you are teaching or studying psychology.


Twitter is taking on a life of its own. Formerly I used it simply to announce each post, and to propagate some aphorisms to tempt people to read the blog. I have a mere 1457 followers (I came to the party late), tweet sparingly (4 tweets per day), but still get roughly 323,000 impressions every 28 days, which is 11,200 impressions a day. I get 110 re-tweets per 100 tweets. I have delusional expectations about any tweet composed in the early dawn, but nonetheless get attention with 30 tweets a month garnering more than a thousand impressions (one with 10,751) almost enough to make me feel I should drop the blog and tweet all day.

Top at 58 re-tweets is a graph showing effect sizes for early intervention studies. Next at 32 re-tweets are two aphorisms, as are most of the other top nine depicted.

Top 9 tweets


79% of my Twitter followers are male.

Blog supporters

My blog readers vary from experts in the field (though they almost never post up comments) to recent voyagers into these cognitive waters, (who ask questions and welcome references). I receive a steady stream of papers and books, and welcome those, even if it often takes me time to post something about them. Keep them coming.

Thank you to all of you who have loyally re-tweeted my tweets about each blog post, which is specially kind when done by celebrated bloggers like HBDChick, Jayman, iSteve and others, all of whom have their own blogs to tend to. Commendations, mentions and re-tweets by figures like Steve Sailer,  Charles Murray and Steven Pinker greatly assist me. 

Now we are 3

On the first blog birthday I said : Finally, I can claim that in one year 71,701 readers have given my words a look, as opposed to the modal 6 if I had published a paper. (At that stage I had 199 Twitter followers.)

On the second blog birthday I said: At the end of two years I have written 418 posts, which is 4 a week, come rain or shine. Page views all time history at the end of two years: 313,753 (At that stage I had 597 Twitter followers).

On this, the third blog birthday, there are a total of  627 posts, I have an all time total of 657,875 readers.


Thank you, all of you.

If you have any ideas to help me reach more researchers and students, please let me know. (In particular, I would like to be read by university teachers writing psychology text books). As a matter of general preference, I seek readers who understand the basic rules of evidence based arguments, and prefer focussed discussion, with references. They are doubtful, cautious, helpful, open-minded but easily startled. Approach them carefully, with a gentle recommendation that they might like to take a brief look at these pages. Perhaps.

Sunday, 22 November 2015

Why I blog: Small particles of knowledge


I started this blog three years ago because I wanted to justify to myself having paid to go to a conference in San Antonio in 2012, and thought I should let other psychologists know something about the papers presented there. Usually, I stay at home in my study.

I continued blogging because I often found myself muttering during news items about the psychological variables which had been left out, often regarding intelligence differences, or failures to follow correct methods, or errors in argument.

The largest reason for blogging is even more personal. My self-evaluation is that I am primarily a translator, bridging a gap between researchers and readers.

The issue was best described by Samuel Johnson:

"The greater part of students are not born with abilities to construct systems, or advance knowledge; nor can have any hope beyond that of becoming intelligent hearers in the schools of art, of being able to comprehend what others discover, and to remember what others teach. Even those to whom Providence hath allotted greater strength of understanding can expect only to improve a single science. In every other part of learning they must be content to follow opinions which they are not able to examine; and, even in that which they claim as peculiarly their own, can seldom add more than some small particle of knowledge to the hereditary stock devolved to them from ancient times, the collective labour of a thousand intellects."
Johnson: Rambler #121 (May 14, 1751)

The great man did not need to spell out that his intellect was superior to many of the best and brightest with whom he conversed (or gored and tossed, as Boswell lamented). He knew he had a great faculty of mind, and enjoyed it, while retaining his humility.

My aim is to be an intelligent hearer, able to comprehend what others discover; able to describe their findings clearly, mostly in commendation though sometimes with detailed reservations; and thus to add a small particle of knowledge to the collective labour of a thousand intellects.

Are your feelings easily hurt?


If so, you are probably also a worrier, moody, irritable, nervous, fed-up, tense, lonely and guilty. In a word: Neurotic.

I have a distant and mature understanding of such propensities. Not that I am a worrier, of course, but simply that, very occasionally, I find myself worrying about things which may never happen, and becoming gloomy and anxious as a result. Only every now and then. I would explain it further and give more lurid examples, but why tempt Fate? Neurosis is bad enough without Nemesis.

So, how do we explain what makes people like us neurotic? Many people (myself included) are tempted to look back at their childhoods, identifying events which were painful and which would make just about everyone worry if life was worth living. Losing one’s keys, for example.

Perhaps the cluster of anxious or “vigilant” attitudes to life have a genetic component.

Genome-wide analysis of over 106,000 individuals identifies 9 neuroticism-associated loci

The authors say:

We report a genome-wide association study of neuroticism in 91,370 participants
of the UK Biobank cohort and a combined meta-analysis which includes a further 7,197 participants  from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS) and 8,687 participants from a Queensland Institute of Medical Research (QIMR) cohort.  All participants were assessed using the  same neuroticism instrument, the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Revised (EPQ-R-S) Short Form’s Neuroticism scale.  We found a SNP-based heritability estimate for neuroticism of approximately 15% (SE = 0.7%).  Meta-analysis identified 9 novel loci associated with neuroticism.  The strongest evidence for association was at a locus on chromosome 8 (p = 1.28x10-15) spanning 4 Mb and containing at least 36 genes.  Other associated loci included genes of interest on chromosome 1
(GRIK3, glutamate receptor ionotropic kainate 3), chromosome 4 (KLHL2, Kelch-like protein 2), chromosome 17 (CRHR1, corticotropin-releasing hormone receptor 1 and MAPT, microtubule associated protein Tau), and on chromosome 18 (CELF4, CUGBP elav-like family member 4).  We found no evidence for genetic differences in the common allelic architecture of neuroticism by sex. 
By comparing our findings with those of the Psychiatric Genetics Consortia, we identified a large genetic correlation between neuroticism and MDD (0.64) and a smaller genetic correlation with schizophrenia (0.22) but not with bipolar disorder.  Polygenic scores derived from the primary UK Biobank sample captured about 1% of the variance in trait liability to neuroticism. Overall, our findings confirm a polygenic basis for neuroticism and substantial shared genetic architecture
between neuroticism and MDD (major depressive disorder).  The identification of 9 new neuroticism-associated loci will drive forward future work on the neurobiology of neuroticism and related phenotypes.


As you all know, individual differences in neuroticism are highly stable across the life course and being neurotic is associated with considerable public health and economic costs, premature mortality, and a range of negative emotional states and psychiatric disorders, including major depressive disorder, anxiety disorders, substance misuse, personality disorders and schizophrenia, so it is an important aspect of personality and may also explain the some of the causes of psychiatric disorders.

Mean neuroticism scores were lower for men than for women (men mean EPQ-R-S = 3.58, SD = 3.19; women mean EPQ-R-S = 4.58, SD = 3.26; p = 0.001).  Principal component analysis of the 12 EPQ-R-S items showed that all items loaded highly on a single component, and the internal consistency (Cronbach alpha) coefficient was


Women worry much more than men. Crudely speaking, 28% more. Although only 1 man in 10 is totally phlegmatic and stable, they are twice as common as totally phlegmatic and stable women. Remember this when things go bump in the night. The authors found no evidence for genetic differences in the common allelic architecture of neuroticism by sex, suggesting to me that they have more of the same rather than something different.


A very good paper with a large sample and a clear result, which identifies 9 loci of interest where only 1 had been shown in previous research.

So, we have a first step, and future work may well push up the variance in neuroticism accounted for by the genome. There is still plenty scope for much of neuroticism to be caused by unfeeling parents, boarding schools, war zones other than boarding schools, sudden noises, and the smell of steak in passageways.

Thursday, 19 November 2015


If you ever needed an illustration of the vast yawning gap between the mainstream narrative about disaffected Muslims travelling from Europe to join ISIS and discussions conducted in the better informed parts of the blogosphere, here is an illustrative example. We start with a post by Steve Sailer.

Steve takes up a discussion on Marginal Revolution, where a commentator known as does an interesting calculation: PISA scores for first and second generation immigrants are compared to the PISA scores for Europeans,  and the gap with the second generation is plotted against the number of people who have left Europe to join ISIS.

First, while mainstream media revolves round named journalists, who are indeed trying to make a name for themselves by establishing bylines, the blogosphere is a mixture of named and anonymous contributors, with a preponderance of the latter. Presumably they think  their comments will draw hostility and even sanctions against them, possibly losing their jobs. It happens.

Second, while mainstream accounts are historical, political, and cultural in their primary focus, and likely to discuss Muslim enclaves in terms of poverty, unemployment and cultural disaffection; blogosphere accounts cover those, but also include cognitive and scholastic ability and other behavioural measures like levels of violence in their countries of origin.

Third, mainstream accounts are usually mostly news reportage, with some general political and economic content and opinion. Blogosphere discussions tend to dig up data sources and more detailed publications. The big difference between mainstream reportage and blogs is that the latter tend to give links to data sets. Perhaps we should always distinguish between linked and unlinked reportage, or just set aside any discursive account which does not give references.

In that spirit, here is some background reading, with references:

The IQ estimates in this post are drawn from PISA and the (rough) estimates of numbers of jihadis from:

However, this is a very rough estimate because a) who knows for sure how many would-be jihadis have made this journey? and b) the numbers are being compared with total populations in each country, rather than Muslim populations in each country. Digging up those numbers would give us a better estimate of the conversion rate from moderate to militant Muslim beliefs and actions. With more time we could compare PISA intelligence estimates with actual national IQ measures, but at least PISA gives a common yardstick, and is more readily accepted.



You will see that the light blue line of Jihadi numbers per million corresponds quite well with the darker blue discontinuous line for the Gap between natives and 2nd generation immigrants. At the top of the graph you can see the purple line which gives the IQ for natives. Remember, this is not a time graph, but a country graph, so the only time element is the difference between 1st and 2nd generation immigrants, which will partly reflect the individual immigration patterns of each nation.

The number of nations for which we have fairly reliable jihadi estimates (11) is too small for detailed statistical analysis, but the implication is that ISIS membership is a second generation effect. Crude correlation coefficients are: ISIS membership and 1st generation immigrant IQ r= –0.24 (n.s.), ISIS and 2nd generation immigrant IQ r= –0.78 (p<.01)  ISIS and gap between 2nd generation immigrant and native IQs r=-0.84 (p<.01). Just as a check, correlation between ISIS and native IQ is r= 0.12 (n.s.).

In some ways the most interesting data are the simplest: second generation ability has dropped from first generation by 2.7 points in Belgium, 4.54 points in England, and 2.5 points in Portugal. The overall results for the 11 countries are:

First generation immigrants    89.04

Second generation immigrants 90.91

Natives                                       97.85

On average there is a 7 IQ point deficit between second generation immigrants and natives. This is highly significant. If jobs are given on ability alone, then there will be a big reduction in the number of immigrants obtaining cognitively demanding occupations which, because of the rarity of high ability, tend to be high status and well paid. “Small differences in means are great at the extremes”.

For example, using Emil’s visualiser, we can see the real life implications of the natives being IQ98 and the second generation immigrants being IQ91

The natives, (painted blue like the ancient Saxons) will have 3.5 times more bright citizens (IQ130) than the immigrants (coded red). Immigrants will be rarely found in the top universities and most prestigious professional occupations. If Europe as a whole demands a Greenwich Mean IQ of 93 for any proper, paid occupation (probably a reasonable estimate of what is required in a non-subsidised occupation), then 63% of the natives will be in employment, but only 45% of the immigrants. Finally, if we look at very low level jobs, which result in compensatory payments from the taxpayer, say those reserved for those below IQ85 then 19% of the natives will be in this unfavoured category, but a substantial 34% of the immigrant group.

If European societies feel that, through embarrassment, they cannot talk about ability, then the only interpretation of different outcomes (all people being judged equal in ability as a matter of principle) is that the immigrant group have been subject to a massive injustice due to native prejudice. In point of fact they are imposing a significant cost on the natives, but if IQ cannot be discussed, and the possibility of a substantial genetic component in intelligence can never even be contemplated, on pain of banishment, then Europe has created a fertile soil for resentment, envy and hatred, while remaining mute about its contribution.

In the spirit of the blogosphere, I should point out that all these figures should be looked at again, and replaced with better estimates wherever possible. We certainly need better estimates of Muslim numbers in each European country, particularly for young men. The causal hypothesis that IQ is a major factor should be compared with other testable hypotheses. So, can we please get some blogosphere data checkers to work on this material, and come back with corrections and improvements?

If you post as Anonymous, try to add a number or imaginary name so I can distinguish one Anon from another Anon. I don’t know which particular unknown person you are.

Fun and contentment (plus death and IQ)

Just to give you an indication as to how the citizens of Edinburgh entertain themselves when not hosting the Festival, here is the St Andrew’s day lecture, which will be given by Pat Rabbitt, and will be worth hearing.

The 2015 special invited St Andrews Day seminar will be given by Professor Patrick Rabbitt of Oxford University. The talk will be held at 5pm on 24th November in room F21 of the Department of Psychology, 7 George Square. A drinks reception will follow the talk.
Seminar title:
"Death, intelligence, fun and contentment in old age"
"Many large and reliable longitudinal studies now allow us to explore the relationships between how the extent to which we can keep our wits about us in old age, our past and present health, our nearness to death, the pleasure we get from hobbies, interests and social life and our general level of contentment interact and determine each other. The talk will discuss how the results of analyses completed this year illustrate these relationships."
You do not need to register for this talk. All are welcome to attend.
Tel: 0131 650 4639

Tuesday, 17 November 2015

Genetic story jumps ahead

Does the Edinburgh Deary gang never sleep? Just when you expect them to put down their pneumatic drills and have a cup of tea, they come up with two very interesting papers which link the genome to intelligence, personality and health.

We need a name for these sorts of findings: Pleotropic Pandora-ism? The System Integrity Nexus? The Infinite and Ubiquitous Network of Causes? (OK, I stole the last one from Borges, “la infinita/Y ubicua red de causas”  but why not? It was taken from “Elvira de Alvear” a beautiful poem written about a generous and courteous lady who suffered a long mental collapse, so it is close to this team’s work on mind and health and ageing).

Anyway, what have these industrious Scots been up to?

Shared genetic aetiology between cognitive functions and physical and mental health in UK Biobank (N = 112 151) and 24 GWAS consortia.

They say: The causes of the known associations between poorer cognitive function and many adverse neuropsychiatric outcomes, poorer physical health, and earlier death remain unknown. We used linkage disequilibrium regression and polygenic profile scoring to test for shared genetic aetiology between cognitive functions and neuropsychiatric disorders and physical health. Using information provided by many published genome-wide association study consortia, we created polygenic profile scores for 24 vascular-metabolic, neuropsychiatric, physiological-anthropometric, and cognitive traits in the participants of UK Biobank, a very large population-based sample (N = 112 151). Pleiotropy between cognitive and health traits was quantified by deriving genetic correlations using summary genome-wide association study statistics applied to the method of linkage disequilibrium regression. Substantial and significant genetic correlations were observed between cognitive test scores in the UK Biobank sample and many of the mental and physical health-related traits and disorders assessed here. In addition, highly significant associations were observed between the cognitive test scores in the UK Biobank sample and many polygenic profile scores, including coronary artery disease, stroke, Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, autism, major depressive disorder, BMI, intracranial volume, infant head circumference, and childhood cognitive ability. Where disease diagnosis was available for UK Biobank participants we were able to show that these results were not confounded by those who had the relevant disease. These findings indicate that a substantial level of pleiotropy exists between cognitive abilities and many human mental and physical health disorders and traits and that it can be used to predict phenotypic variance across samples.

Well, in decades gone by, few would have predicted that. Intelligence was something which applied to school work (if it applied to anything at all) and perhaps to the evaluation of brain-damaged patients and child development, but it had nothing to do with serious matters like physical and severe mental health disorders. Even though the general drift of modern genetic research has been going in this direction, the results are still astounding.

Three cognitive tests were used. The Reaction Time test was a computerized ‘Snap’ game, in which participants were to press a button as quickly as possible when two ‘cards’ on screen were matching. There were eight experimental trials, with a Cronbach α reliability of 0.85. In the Memory test, participants were shown a set of twelve cards (six pairs) on a computer screen for five seconds, and had to recall which were matching after the cards had been obscured. We used the number of errors in this task as the (inverse) measure of Memory ability. The Verbal-numerical Reasoning task involved a series of thirteen items assessing verbal and arithmetical deduction (Cronbach α reliability = 0.62).

Linkage Disequilibrium score regression was used to derive genetic correlations to determine the degree to which the polygenic architecture of a trait overlaps with that of another. Next, the polygenic risk score method was used to test the extent to which these genetic correlations are predictive of phenotypic variance across samples. Both LD score regression and polygenic risk scores are dependent on the traits analysed being highly polygenic in nature, i.e. where a large number of variants of small effect contribute toward phenotypic variation.

Here is a table which one day will find its way into psychology textbooks. The correlations above the diagonal shouldn’t really exist, and yet there they are. They show a link between the chemical code of life and the skills of life itself.


In Table 2 they show links between the cognitive measures and: coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, Alzheimer’s Disease; Autism, Bipolar disease; Major depressive disorder, Schizophrenia, Intercranial volume, Infant Head Circumference, BMI, height, childhood cognitive ability, college education and years of education. The last three load on verbal-numerical ability, but not memory or reaction time. Perhaps all this is better depicted on a heat map:



The picture is becoming clearer. There is a link between cognitive ability and health because the causal code of life for a good body and a good mind operates on shared pathways.

How about personality?

Pleiotropy between neuroticism and physical and mental health: findings from 108,038 men and women in UK Biobank.

There is considerable evidence that people with higher levels of the personality trait of neuroticism have an increased risk of several types of mental disorder. Higher neuroticism has also been associated, less consistently, with increased risk of various physical health outcomes. We hypothesised that these associations may, in part, be due to shared genetic influences. We tested for pleiotropy between neuroticism and 12 mental and physical diseases or health traits using linkage disequilibrium regression and polygenic profile scoring. Genetic correlations were derived between neuroticism scores in 108,038 people in UK Biobank and health-related measures from 12 large genome-wide association studies(GWAS). Summary information for the 12 GWAS was used to create polygenic risk scores for the health-related measures in the UK Biobank participants. Associations between the health-related polygenic scores and neuroticism were examined using regression, adjusting for age, sex, genotyping batch, genotyping array, assessment centre, and population stratification. Genetic correlations were identified between neuroticism and anorexia nervosa(rg = 0.17), major depressive disorder (rg = 0.66) and schizophrenia (rg = 0.21). Polygenic risk for several health-related measures were associated with neuroticism, in a positive direction in the case of bipolar disorder (β = 0.017), major depressive disorder (β = 0.036), schizophrenia (β = 0.036), and coronary artery disease (β = 0.011), and in a negative direction in the case of BMI (β = -0.0095). These findings indicate that a high level of pleiotropy exists between neuroticism and some measures of mental and physical health, particularly major depressive disorder and schizophrenia.

Participants completed the Neuroticism scale of the Eysenck Personality QuestionnaireRevised Short Form (EPQ-R Short Form). This scale has been concurrently validated in older people against two of the most widely-used measures of neuroticism, taken from the International Personality Item Pool (IPIP) and the NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI); it correlated -0.84 with the IPIP-Emotional Stability scale and 0.85 with the NEO-FFI Neuroticism scale. A previous study found a high genetic correlation (0.91) between the EPQ-R Short Form Neuroticism scale and psychological distress assessed in a nonpsychiatric population using the 30-item General Health Questionnaire.

Neuroticism is not a good trait to have (say I with a worried expression on my face). People who are higher in neuroticism have an increased risk of developing common mental disorders such as mood, anxiety, somatoform and substance use disorders, and also schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Higher neuroticism is associated with personality disorders, major depression, generalised anxiety, panic disorders and phobias, and alcohol and drug dependence, antisocial personality and conduct disorders. It is even linked with risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease. Perhaps, if you are of similarly “vigilant” disposition, I should have warned you to skip the above paragraph, but I knew that your eyes would be anxiously drawn to this gloomy list anyway, so why waste time in pointless reassurance? We are doomed, utterly doomed.


Here is a picture of the results:


In very quick summary, three domains of enquiry: cognitive ability, personality and health, have been brought together and shown to rely on common genetic pathways, a causal overlap of significant proportions. These two papers follow a steady drumbeat of high quality research, showing genetic associations with a broad range of important human behaviours. However, although they are in that tradition, they also reveal a considerable speeding up of the discovery rate, and in the power of the findings. These results will cause excitement in informed circles (and has already done so among the first readers) and have a very good chance of being seen as landmark papers. 

Saturday, 14 November 2015

Getting murder into proportion


A mourner pays his respect outside the Le Carillon restaurant the morning after a series of deadly attacks in Paris that killed at least 127


After the atrocities in Paris last night, it may seem the wrong time to talk about statistics, yet much of the subsequent commentary has involved statistical considerations, albeit implicit. A common concern is that because the terrorists chanted Islamic slogans it might be interpreted as proving that all Muslims are terrorists. Hence the frequent explanations that not all Muslims are terrorists. If anyone draws that conclusion, they would of course be mistaken.

Most Muslims are not suicide bombers.

However, that does not end the statistical discussion, because there is another statement which is equally true.

Most suicide bombers are Muslims.

The following commentary on those two observations is hardly snappy, but it covers the observed facts: Most Muslims are not suicide bombers. Suicide bombers are a statistical rarity among Muslims. However, if you look at the last 20 years of suicide bombing (people with bombs strapped to their bodies, who may also carry other weapons with which they kill members of the general public) then the majority are Muslim. Yes, those deaths are few when compared to other deaths, including violent deaths, but these murders have a particular extra sting of intentionality: they are conducted at random against people for for simply being what they are: civilians going about their lives.

People are not fools. They can understand the normal processes of disease, and of the accidents that sometimes happen. They understand that national murder figures include criminals fighting each other over territory. They find it much harder to accept being attacked by someone bent on the pitiless destruction of their society.  Hence the reason why members of the public are often alarmed by militant Muslims, fear them, and want to avoid them. They do so fully knowing that most Muslims are not terrorists and also knowing that most political, random violence attacks against them are carried out by Muslim terrorists. Being Muslim is a distinguishing characteristic of contemporary terrorism directed against the West. It is very, very weakly predictive, but it is not zero, and people tend to think in general categories, not in statistical gradations.

During what were euphemistically referred to as The Troubles, the mainland bombings  and gun attacks on the United Kingdom were carried out by Nationalist, Northern Ireland Roman Catholics with Irish Republican Army membership. Their being Christians, at least nominally, was not a distinguishing feature, though Roman Catholicism in Northern Ireland was arguably a relevant aspect of their upbringing. (Schooling was largely religiously segregated). British citizens were variously worried about Catholics, nationalists, and the Irish in general. They knew the bombers were a minority. They suspected that they had covert support from many Catholics in Northern Ireland, and big turnouts at IRA funerals seemed to confirm that. Irish accents were not a prized characteristic.

Political murders aside, the proportions of murderers vary considerably from one nation to another. Murder rates per million range from 3 in Japan, to 10 in the United Kingdom and France, roughly 20 in North Africa and Middle East (Syria before the war 22), 30 in Taiwan, 40 in Fiji, 50 in Mauritania, 61 in Ghana, 71 in Eritrea, 80 in Eastern Africa, 90 in Russia, 100 in Middle Africa, 111 in Madagascar, 120 in Ethiopia, 133 in Grenada, 147 in the Cayman Islands, 152 in Myanmar, 170 in Guyana, 184 in Botswana, 193 in Equatorial Guinea, 200 in Nigeria, and then upwards through the Caribbean, Africa and Central America, till we get to 308 in Columbia, 412 in El Salvador, 526 in US Virgin Islands, 537 in Venezuela, and 904 in Honduras.

Not everyone in Honduras is a murderer (merely 1 in 1106 Hondurans), but there is an appreciable 300 fold increase in the risk of being murdered when compared with Japan. You are perfectly entitled to avoid Honduras and holiday elsewhere. Indeed, it is up to you at precisely what murder rate you choose not to visit a country. As an adult you can set your own risk preferences, and act accordingly.

To get things into proportion, this new attack on Paris is a very significant event. Some reports say that the perpetrators clearly had French accents. That is also very significant.  The wider issues of the slaughter in Paris were prefigured in January, with the attack on journalists and a Jewish supermarket.

I said then: Islam has a prominent militant wing, a death meme which finds resonance in many a self-important young idiot.

I do not know how one achieves a Reformation in fundamentalist Islamic beliefs, or even if that is possible, but I hope that someone does, soon.

Thursday, 12 November 2015

London slaves case comes to Court

You may remember the London slaves case in November 2015, which suggested to horrified newspaper readers that people had been brought into the country and kept as domestic slaves. The case was shocking because the women concerned were held for 30 years.

Helped by the revulsion to this example of “slavery” the Modern Slavery Act 2015 was accepted by Parliament shortly afterwards, and following agreement by both Houses on the text of the Bill it received Royal Assent on 26 March 2015.

In fact, within a few weeks of the women walking out of the house the whole narrative had collapsed. This turned out to be a case of a household of browbeaten former Maoist women groupies taken over by a domineering paranoid male. He is now on trial, and will very probably be convicted. I imagine that after arguing that the women consented to everything he did, he will be sent for psychiatric examination and be found to have either paranoid schizophrenia or a severe personality disorder, or both.

Odd, isn’t it, when psychiatric diagnoses seem better founded than Parliamentary legislation?

Wednesday, 11 November 2015





By chance I was in Aylesbury today, for the first time in 50 years since that day long ago when I went with a college friend to see his father, who gave us lunch in his garden. Aylesbury was built on an 4th century BC Iron Age hill fort and was an important market town from Anglo-Saxon times onwards. The Grammar School was founded in 1598.  The town was of Puritan sentiments, and backed the Parliamentarians in the Civil War.

I searched for the town centre, of which some traces remained in the quiet streets by the church of St Mary, with fine houses, alms houses provided by a benefactor in the 18th century, pubs and the idiosyncratic architecture of independent minds. In the church the school kids gave a spirited rendition of “It’s a long way to Tipperary” and  past Prebendal House (where the radical MP John Wilkes lived) I met a woman who appeared to be a local. I mention that fact because in the market square the crowd were roughly 20% not English (by 2011 10% of the population were Islamic), with many women with head scarves and some with fully veiled faces, many Middle Easteners and Africans, a few of the latter in wheelchairs being pushed by carers. The lady and I discussed the demolition of so many historical buildings (done in the 1960 to make way for new shops), the beauty of the remaining streets, and she gave me advice on the least-bad coffee shop.

Near the market square the poppy wearing legions waited and, remembering the date, I joined the crowd. Town Mayor with chains of office, British legions with regimental caps, flag bearers, respectful crowd. In the background by the market stalls stood a respectful, fully be-gowned and be-wigged judge who, being spotted, was invited to join the other dignitaries. Then the traditional ceremony, the flags lowered, “at the going down of the sun and in the morning we will remember them.”, two minutes silence,  the local clock striking 11 (eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month) and then a mistimed single gun salute which startled all of us. “Got the timing wrong” muttered a knowledgeable lady afterwards, but she agreed with my suggestion that their intentions were better than their watches.

So, nothing. Just a little English country town. I admired the crowd remembering their history. I thought of a cousin who died in the Pathfinder squadron. I regretted much of the recent architecture. I also felt it was the Last Post for a passing age, and perhaps a dying people. I wondered whether the newcomers would understand the past, and respect it. It was not primarily their war, and none were at the ceremony. The cross on the war memorial, which had always seemed normal, now seemed questionable.  There were no trumpeters, just a recording played on a sound system. A century has almost passed since the Great War, and there may be a case for letting these memories fade, but these are one of the habits of our tribe, and it seems churlish to ever forget that for this, our living tomorrow, they gave their today.

Monday, 9 November 2015

Chisala and Powerpoint Publishing


Just because research hasn’t been published doesn’t mean it’s right.

Chandra Chisala has continued a line of argument based on results from some schools-based research in the UK and USA. I commented on his first post here:

In brief, it included unpublished work on particular schools chosen because African students were doing particularly well, with hard to track down references and incomplete methods sections.

Chisala has now posted a Part 2 which gives unpublished results from Seattle schools. Compared to Part 1 (which included national UK exam results) there is even less detailed material available. Everything said may be true, but the exhibits are not available for inspection, so it repeats the style of his first article, in which it is very difficult to trace references back to the published source. Call it “Powerpoint Publishing”.

Chisala summarises his argument thus: Remember our goal. We only need to show that blacks in Africa would have a higher average IQ than native black Americans if they were moved from Africa to America since the African environment clearly depresses IQ, as both environmentalists and hereditarians agree in principle. This result would mean that whatever “problem” the black Americans have that result in such a large and intractable IQ gap with whites and other groups, has nothing whatsoever to do with the genetic evolution of races, especially since they even have more white genes than Africans. It is not their sub-Saharan African (black) genes that are responsible for their chronic academic under-achievement; it has to be a factor that is endemic to African American history.

There are many assumptions in this line of reasoning. The main one is the assumption that recent African migrants to the USA are a representative sample of Africans in Africa. This is not unreasonable, but one would need a better understanding of the family backgrounds to be confident about it. The second assumption is that the African environment is universally bad. In fact, Africa is propelling more of its people into better standards of life, by the open-market business methods which work everywhere. Health is improving, as is school attendance. Many African countries are showing a Flynn effect. Kenya has gained 8 IQ points per decade, and the global picture is positive, though convergence in maths will be a long time coming (Meisenberg and Woodley. Intelligence 41, 2013 808-816). The third assumption is that we can sort out the relative contributions of nature and nurture by looking only at Africans. Asians also suffered poverty in the post colonial period, so that recently enriched nations like Vietnam are also relevant. Poor malnourished Vietnamese refugees fled Communism decades ago (unclear whether they were from cognitive elites). The fourth assumption is that “factors endemic to African American history” are unique. As I keep explaining, most African slaves ended up in Brazil, so the achievements of Africans in Brazil are also relevant, and a particularly interesting test case, since there was a much more relaxed attitude to intermingling.

There central element in this article is a Powerpoint presentation of Seattle schools results, which begins with a disclaimer that using “language spoken at home” to infer race does not necessarily map onto genetic groups. The education authority says Please note: this is an important and critical limitation of this study. The slides make it clear that:  The “Admission Form” also collects specific primary race data for Asians and Native‐Americans Americans and ethnicity for Hispanics Hispanics per state regulations. This data is not collected in specific detail for Whites or Blacks / African‐ Americans.  So, we don’t have specific ethnic details on the key groups being compared.  A supplementary table in a published paper might provide further data to assist in estimating this potential error term. It would have been helpful to have included this disclaimer in the article.

Chisala says: The fact that these are only group pass rates (on mathematics and reading) does not matter for purposes of ethnic IQ comparison since the pass rate positions correlate perfectly with expected mean IQ score ranks of the groups before disaggregation (that’s the same logic we were using for GCSE pass rate comparisons, especially when mathematics is included).

The problem with using pass rates rather than actual scores is that if pass rates are raised by making tests easier, then it will appear that group differences are reduced. If any test gives generous marks to students who simply attempt answers to questions, and indicate knowledge of very basic terms, then real differences in competence are obscured. The Seattle data are based on overall district pass rates of up to 70%, which is understandable for an education authority, but loses a lot of detail. Nonetheless, most findings impart some information, and taken at face value the results are interesting. In the Bayesian spirit of “hunt the submarine” one should try to work out the truth of an important matter using the best available data, however slight. Chisala has potentially found something interesting, something which opens the door to new hypotheses. Looking at language differences gives additional information. However, there is also a potential distortion (apart from not knowing how language maps on to race) which is that brighter children pick up new languages more quickly, such that those in the “not needing to go to English classes” are very probably brighter, or conversely, have had much longer to learn the language (another detail it would be good to have).

For example, first including and then excluding those with poor English, pass rates for Maths are:

Asians and Pacific Islanders: Chinese 87-91%, Japanese 88-89%, Korean 88-87%, Vietnamese 75-82%, Filipino 67-72%,  Indian 66-74%, Samoan 39-44%

Hispanic and Latinos: Hispanic English Speakers 58-58%   Hispanic Spanish Speakers 39-54%

Black and African Americans: Amharic 51-62%,  Tigrigna 46-58%, Oromo 39-53%, English 36-36%, Somali 28-47%

Comment: Overall, those who need English language teaching are less able to do maths. African American (Black English-speakers in this classification) do badly on Maths, but in the same sort of range as Samoans and Somalis. Sample sizes are generally reasonable, but rather low for Amharic (143), Tigrigna (106) and Oromo (94)  and their representativeness is unknown.  Chinese and Vietnamese do very well, despite coming from previously very poor countries. Personally, I do not see a clear pattern of environmentally deleterious effects here.

The presentation also gives a measure which includes attendance and discipline, where 3 is the district average and 10 means not likely to complete high school. By this measure the following are at risk: Somali 5.5, Samoan 5.5, African Americans 5.4, Spanish Speaking Hispanics 5.3, Oromo 5.1 which suggests that a mixture of genetic and cultural elements are involved. African descent is still a partial but plausible contributing factor to poor school progress.

Chisala agrees that proper representative samples would be the most informative, but in the absence of those is using some available results on individual school districts, and extrapolating from those. Although this is a weaker method than proper sampling, it can sometimes achieve informative results. For example, if high achievement were found in disproportionate numbers among African students, relative to the number of Africans in the world then one could estimate, from that extreme high-performing group, the likely average intelligence from the population from which they are drawn. This is a particularly useful method if there is no other ability data, or you  want to trust only data based on open competition, like chess tournaments where players get Elo rankings based on win/lose scores.

If the number of very bright Africans is higher than would be expected from those, say, 2 standard deviation above a mean IQ of 80, then the mean of 80 is called into question. The real mean is likely to be higher, thus accounting for the larger than expected number of those achieving +2 sigma performance. Therefore, get a good estimate of peak African achievement, divide by African population, consult normal curve statistics, work out the implied mean.

Chisala has found some high performing Africans in the UK and the US. Good. What does this tell us about the population from which they are drawn? At the moment, not enough to conclude that the mean of 80 is wrong.

Perhaps I need to spell out my concerns more clearly. I don’t think one can draw firm conclusions from this sort of reporting of results. It is simply not good enough to say the research was not intended for publication. It cannot be evaluated until we have been able to read it properly. (Just seeing the full report would be enough: it does not need to be in a journal. I have emailed the Seattle School dept asking if they have any reports they can send me).  It is premature to rush to conclusions about what this means for various hypotheses when we haven’t got sufficient detail on the basic results.