I hope we know what we are doing. The genetic material of several hundred highly intelligent people in the Western world have been handed over to the Beijing Genetics Institute for analysis. I do not doubt that they are the largest genetic lab in the world, and I do not doubt that they are unhampered by Western taboos about the genetics of intelligence, but it is still a little unsettling to let the Chinese Politburo have first refusal on the application of any results. By the way, I have no inside knowledge about this. It is simply that I believe that if some positive results come out the Politburo will know about them very quickly.
The first communication to the scientific world comes on December 12th at the International Society for Intelligence Research conference in Melbourne. The main presentations are shown on the link above. The actual results are a closely guarded secret. I bet that they will announce that they can account for 40% of the variance in the sample of discovery (the “scary bright” genius population on whom the work is being done) and 1% of the variance in any sample of verification (either the general population or a “normal bright” population). On a discriminant function analysis they may achieve a good degree of separation between the target group and everyone else. This guess is based on the ball-park figures derived from previous research into the genetics of intelligence. It is also possible that they will say that they are still looking at the results and can’t tell the difference between a genius and a performance artist who specialises in education policy.
There are still available places at the conference.